[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081738
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1238 PM EST Sat Feb 8 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

The surface gradient will tighten along the coast of N Colombia
during the evening and night hours to produce gale force winds and
seas 9-13 ft. A gale is forecast to start 09/0000 UTC and end
09/1200 UTC. A similar gale is forecast to start 10/0000 UTC and
end 10/1200 UTC.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC,
the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the
NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia from 05N08W
to 04N12W. The ITCZ continues from 04N12W to 04N20W. The ITCZ
continues west of a surface trough near 03N24W to 01S30W to the
coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is near
the surface trough from 03N-06N between 21W-25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1028 mb high is centered over N Florida near 30N82W. 10-15 kt SE
winds are over the Gulf of Mexico. Fair weather is over the NE
Gulf and N Florida. Scattered showers remain over the Straits of
Florida. Further west, a weak stationary front extends from Marsh
Island Louisiana near 29.5N92W to Matagorda Island Texas near
28N96W. The front is void of convection. Elsewhere, broken to
overcast low clouds are over the SW Gulf, south of 24N and west of
94W.

High pressure currently over the SE U.S. will build SW across the
region and dominate into the middle of next week. A weak cold
front will stall just off the TX and LA coasts tonight, then
dissipate Sat. The next cold front is expected to stall near the
TX coast Tue, then move into the NW Gulf late Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A quasi-stationary front extends from central Cuba near 23N79W to
the Yucatan Peninsula near 20N87W. Scattered showers are over the
Yucatan Channel. 10-30 kt tradewinds are over the remainder of
the Caribbean Sea. Strongest winds are along the coast of N
Colombia, while weakest winds are along the coast of Nicaragua.

The current stationary front will drift slowly NW and continue to
weaken through tonight before dissipating. High pressure will
rebuild north of the area in the wake of the front, to produce
strong tradewinds across the south central Caribbean, pulsing to
gale force off of Colombia each night, starting tonight through
Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N65W to central Cuba
near 23N79W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm north of the
front. A large 1036 mb high is over the central Atlantic near
32N35W producing fair weather.

Of note in the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered
east of the Leeward Islands near 19N52W. Scattered showers are
within 120 nm of the center.

The current cold front will stall from near 31N63W to the SE
Bahamas early tonight, then gradually drift NW and dissipate
through early next week. High pressure centered W of the Azores
will continue to maintain a ridge axis extending along about 32N
to just S of Bermuda through the weekend, building westward to
Florida by the middle of next week.

$$
Formosa
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