[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082321
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
621 PM EST Sat Feb 8 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...

The surface gradient will tighten along the coast of N Colombia
during the evening and night hours to produce gale-force winds
and seas 9-13 ft. A gale is forecast to start by 09/0000 UTC
through 09/1200 UTC. Similar conditions will return by 10/0000
UTC and end by 10/1200 UTC. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC,
the latest Offshore Waters Forecast product under MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23
KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia from 05N10W
to 03N13W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 04N21W, then
resumes west of a surface trough from 03N25W to 03S39W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted near the surface trough from 02N-
06N between 21W-26W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1027 mb surface high is centered over N Florida near 30N84W.
To the south, the tail end of a frontal boundary extends across
the Yucatan Channel with scattered showers. A surface trough
extends across the Bay of Campeche with no significant convection.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate anticyclonic winds across the
basin.

High pressure centered over will build SW into the Gulf and
dominate through the middle of next week. A frontal boundary along
the Texas coastline will dissipate tonight. The next front may
reach the same area by Tue, before stalling into Wed, then
possibly surging SE into the Gulf on Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning,
currently in effect for the south-central Caribbean.

A weakening stationary front extends from central Cuba near
22N81W to the Yucatan Peninsula near 21N87W. Scattered showers
are noted along the front. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to
fresh trades across the basin, with strongest winds along the
coast of N Colombia.

The stationary front will dissipate tonight. High pressure will
rebuild north of the area in the wake of the front, and produce
strong tradewinds across the south central Caribbean, pulsing to
gale-force off of Colombia each night through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the W Atlantic from 32N64W to 24N77W.
the front becomes stationary from that point to 23N80W. Scattered
showers are within 120 nm north of the front. To the east, a 1033
mb surface high is over the central Atlantic near 32N35W
supporting fair weather across the remainder of the basin.

The cold front will fully stall tonight, then gradually dissipate
Mon. High pressure centered W of the Azores will continue to
maintain a ridge axis extending along about 32N to just S of
Bermuda through the weekend, building westward to Florida by the
middle of next week.

$$

ERA
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