[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081138
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
638 AM EST Sat Feb 8 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1120 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

The 18-hour forecast, valid at 08/0600 UTC, consists of NE-to-E
gale- force winds, and sea heights ranging from 11 feet to 13
feet, from 11N to 12N between 73W and 76W. The gale-force winds
will last for 12 hours, ending at the 30-hour time period. The
same gale-force wind conditions, and sea heights ranging from 8
feet to 11 feet, from 11N to 12N between 73W and 76W, at the
42-hour time period, and they will continue until Sunday night.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC,
the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the
NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes the Prime Meridian along 04N, to 04N12W.
The ITCZ continues from 04N12W, to 04N16W, and to 05N19W. A second
ITCZ is from 02S to 03S between 15W and 35W. An inverted surface
trough is along 21N/23N from 06N southward. Precipitation:
Isolated moderate is within 100 nm to the WNW of the surface
trough. Isolated moderate is within 60 nm to the north and to the
south of the second ITCZ, between 20W and 31W. Isolated moderate
is elsewhere from 03N southward from 31W westward, in an area of
low level/surface speed shear.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level SW wind flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico.
A 1023 mb high pressure center is near 28N86W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure will build into the region, and dominate the area
into the middle of the next week. A weak cold front will stall
just off the TX and LA coasts tonight, and then dissipate on
Saturday. The next cold front will push off the TX coast on Monday
night or Tuesday, and then stall in the far NW Gulf into the
middle of the next week. A second cold front will move into the
NW Gulf on Wednesday morning, reaching from the N central Gulf to
the SW Gulf late on Wednesday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front cuts across Cuba near 22N80W, to 20N86W,
curving to a 1015 mb low pressure center that is near 17N86W. A
surface trough continues southward through central Honduras.
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 15N northward from
80W westward. Some of the rainshowers may be more related to low
clouds in trade wind flow.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence in water vapor imagery
spans the entire Caribbean Sea.

The current stationary front will dissipate today. High pressure
will be rebuilding to the north of the area in the wake of the
front. The wind speeds will be pulsing to gale-force off the
coast of Colombia, mainly at night, starting tonight into
Wednesday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level SW wind flow moves from the Gulf of Mexico, across
Florida, into the western part of the Atlantic Ocean, to the west
of the line that passes through 32N58W, to the SE Bahamas.

A cold front passes through 32N68W, to 31N69W. A stationary front
continues from 31N69W, to the Bahamas near 24N76W, and beyond
Cuba near 22N80W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
isolated moderate rainshowers are within 300 nm to the west of the
frontal boundary.

An upper level trough extends from an upper level cyclonic
circulation center that is in western Algeria, to a 26N18W
upper level cyclonic circulation center, to 24N38W, to a 17N53W
cyclonic circulation center, to 11N59W just to the east of the
SE Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 19N to 21N
between 49W and 52W.

The current cold front will stall, from 31N65W to the SE Bahamas
tonight, and then dissipate early next week. High pressure,
centered to the W of the Azores, will continue to keep a ridge
extending S of Bermuda through the weekend, and then building
westward to Florida by the middle of next week.

$$
MT
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