[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
104 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

A tight surface pressure gradient will support NE-to-E gale-
force winds to pulse overnight near the coast of Colombia during
the next 48 hours. The sea heights will range from 9 to 12 ft.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
further details.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...
.42 HOUR FORECAST N OF 29N W OF 77W S WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8
TO 10 FT.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...
.42 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT 30N86W TO 24N90W TO 18.5N94W. N OF
26N E OF FRONT TO 83W S TO SW WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14
FT.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC; the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST for the Gulf of Mexico:
MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC; the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST for the
Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC; or go
to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml,
from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 02N30W to the coast
of Brazil near 03S40W. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 05N
southward from South America eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1026 mb high
pressure center, that is near 29N60W, to interior sections of
Florida along 28N, into SE Louisiana. A surface trough extends
from 18N95W in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico,
to 24N99W, to a 999 mb low pressure center that is near 28N104W.
Upper level SW wind flow is pushing high level moisture
northeastward. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds are moving
northeastward.

A cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf late Wednesday
morning. The front will reach from SE Louisiana to near Tampico,
Mexico Wed night, from near Tampa, Florida to the Yucatan Channel
Thu night, then shift southeast of the basin on Fri. Fresh to
strong winds and building seas are expected on either side of the
front. The southerly return flow is forecast to reach minimal gale
force over the NE Gulf on Thu. Winds and seas will diminish Fri
and Sat as high pressure moves northeastward across the Gulf
region.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating cold front is along 22N50W in the Atlantic Ocean,
to the Mona Passage. Comparatively drier air in subsidence spans
the Atlantic Ocean from 23N between 50W and 82W. Precipitation:
broken to overcast low level clouds and possible rainshowers are
from 16N northward from 80W eastward, from 75W eastward, from 16N
southward from 78W westward, and from 15N northward from 80W
westward.

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to
strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean through
the week. Winds will pulse to minimal gale force off Colombia
tonight and Wed night. The trade wind flow will also increase
across the eastern Caribbean on Thu. Expect fresh to strong
southerly winds across the NW Caribbean, including the Yucatan
Channel, Wed through Thu night ahead of a cold front that will
move across the Gulf of Mexico. The cold front is expected to
reach the Yucatan Channel early Fri, then stall and dissipate
from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Fri night into Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N36W, to 27N40W, and 23N46W. The
cold front is dissipating from 23N46W, to 20N56W, toward the
northern coast of Puerto Rico, and into the Mona Passage.
Broken to overcast low and middle level clouds and possible
rainshowers cover the areas that are from 17N to 21N between 64W
and Jamaica, in the Caribbean Sea and in the Atlantic Ocean.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the Atlantic Ocean, within 60
nm on either side of the line from 19N50W to 22N46W 24N44W 26N41W
28N36W.

The current dissipating frontal boundary eventually will become
weaker and it will disappear. High pressure will move eastward
along 29N through mid week in the wake of the front. Southerly
flow will strengthen north of the Bahamas Wed night into Thu,
ahead of the next cold front moving off the coast of Florida Thu
night into Fri. Southerly winds are expected to reach gale force
off NE Florida by Thu night. The front is forecast to reach from
31N73W to western Cuba on Fri, from near Bermuda to the central
Bahamas by Fri night, then stall from 29N65W to the SE Bahamas on
Sat.

$$
MT
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