[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042359
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
659 PM EST Tue Feb 4 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

A tight surface pressure gradient will support NE-to-E gale-
force winds to pulse overnight near the coast of Colombia during
the next 48 hours. The sea heights will range from 9 to 12 ft.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 02N30W to the coast
of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is from
01N-04N between 25W-34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 04/2100 UTC, a 1024 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic
near 30N62W producing southernly return flow over the Gulf of
Mexico. 10-15 kt winds are over the E Gulf, E of 90W. 15-20 kt
winds are over the W Gulf. Radar imagery shows scattered moderate
convection over SE Louisiana. The central and E Gulf has fair
weather.

Fresh to strong southerly winds will persist across the western
Gulf ahead of a cold front that is expected to enter the NW Gulf
on Wed. The front will reach from SE Louisiana to near Veracruz,
Mexico Thu morning, from near Tampa, Florida to the Yucatan
Channel Thu night, then shift southeast of the basin on Fri. Winds
and seas will diminish Fri and Sat as high pressure moves
northeastward across the Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect.

A weak stationary front extends from 20N60W to E Hispaniola near
19N68W. Scattered showers are within 45 nm of the front.
Elsewhere, scattered showers are over Jamaica, the NW
Caribbean, E Honduras, Costa Rica and Panama. Tradewinds are over
the Caribbean Sea. Wind speeds range from near gale along the
coast of Colombia to 10 kt over the Virgin Islands.

In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Caribbean with axis
along 77W. Strong subsidence covers the entire area suppressing
deep convection.

The stationary front will dissipate tonight. High pressure N of
the area will support fresh to strong trade winds across the
south-central Caribbean through the week. Winds will pulse to
minimal gale force off Colombia tonight and Wed night. Expect
fresh to strong southerly winds across the NW Caribbean, including
the Yucatan Channel, Wed through Thu night ahead of a cold front
that will move across the Gulf of Mexico. The cold front is
expected to reach the Yucatan Channel early Fri, then stall and
dissipate Fri night into Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1024 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 30N62W. A
cold front extends over the central Atlantic from 31N38W to
23N50W to 20N60W. Scattered moderate convection is from 20N-24N
between 44W-48W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the
remainder of the front. A 1021 mb high is over the E Atlantic
near 23N37W.

The tail end of the cold front that is presently over the central
Atlantic will stall and dissipate tonight through Tue. The
northern portion of the cold front N of 24N will continue to move
east to the E Atlantic through Thu. High pressure will move
eastward along 29N through mid week over the W Atlantic in the
wake of the front. Southerly flow will strengthen north of the
Bahamas by Wed night, ahead of the next cold front moving off the
coast of Florida Thu night into Fri. Southerly winds may reach
gale force off NE Florida by Thu night. The front should reach
from 31N72W to the Straits of Florida on Fri, and from near
Bermuda to the central Bahamas by Sat morning.

 $$ Formosa
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