[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041650
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1150 AM EST Tue Feb 4 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

A tight surface pressure gradient will support NE-to-E gale-
force winds to pulse overnight near the coast of Colombia during
the next 48 hours. The sea heights will range from 9 to 12 ft.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 02N31W to the coast
of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered showers are seen from 04S-03N
between 40W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level trough digs over the southwestern U.S. and
northwestern Mexico. Upper-level ridging extends from the western
Caribbean to Florida. At the surface, ridging extends from the
western Atlantic across Florida and into the eastern Gulf of
Mexico, while lower pressure prevails over west Texas. This
pressure pattern is resulting in fresh southerly winds across the
central Gulf of Mexico, and strong to locally near gale winds over
portions of the western Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is
seen within 30 nm of a line extending from 30N91W to 23N97W.
Broken clouds and isolated showers are elsewhere over the basin
west of a line from the Florida Big Bend near 30N84W to 21N89W to
18N95W.

Fresh to strong southerly winds will persist across the western
Gulf ahead of a cold front that is expected to enter the NW Gulf
on Wed. The front will reach from SE Louisiana to near Veracruz,
Mexico Thu morning, from near Tampa, Florida to the Yucatan
Channel Thu night, then shift southeast of the basin on Fri. Winds
and seas will diminish Fri and Sat as high pressure moves
northeastward across the Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid- to upper-level ridging covers the western Caribbean. Dry air
is noted over most of the basin. Isolated showers are seen across
portions of the Greater Antilles and northern Caribbean, north of
17N. The latest ASCAT pass shows strong trades over the south-
central Caribbean south of 16N between 71W-79W, with near gale
force winds near the coast of Colombia from 11N-13N between 73W-
77W. Moderate to fresh winds cover the remainder of the basin.

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade
winds across the south-central Caribbean through the week. Winds
will pulse to minimal gale force off Colombia tonight and Wed
night. Expect fresh to strong southerly winds across the NW
Caribbean, including the Yucatan Channel, Wed through Thu night
ahead of a cold front that will move across the Gulf of Mexico.
The cold front is expected to reach the Yucatan Channel early Fri,
then stall and dissipate Fri night into Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1025 mb high is near 29N67W. A central Atlantic cold front
extends from 32N40W to 24N49W to 21N60W, then continues as a
dissipating stationary front to just N of Puerto Rico near 19N66W.
Numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is seen
along and within 45 nm behind and 120 nm ahead of the front,
mainly north of 22N and east of 50W. The convection is being
enhanced by upper-level diffluence, to the east of an upper-level
trough axis. A secondary cold front extends from 32N42W to 29N54W.
Strong to near gale force W to NW winds are north of 30N between
the first front and 52W. A 989 mb storm force low north of the
area near 40N is generating large swell, mainly north of 28N
between 38W-58W. Farther E, a 1023 mb high is near 24N37W. A
surface trough extends from 23N18W to 32N24W. Fresh to strong SE
winds are within 300 nm E of the trough axis.

A stalled front extending from 22N55W to just north of Puerto
Rico will dissipate later today. High pressure will move eastward
along 29N through mid week in the wake of the front. Southerly
flow will strengthen north of the Bahamas by Wed night, ahead of
the next cold front moving off the coast of Florida Thu night into
Fri. Southerly winds may reach gale force off NE Florida by Thu
night. The front should reach from 31N72W to the Straits of
Florida on Fri, and from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas by
Sat morning.

$$
Hagen
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