[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041153
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Tue Feb 04 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1140 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

Expect S winds 20 to 30 knots, with frequent gusts to gale-
force, and sea heights reaching 8 feet, from 26N to 28N between
94W and 97W. These conditions will last for the next 12 hours or
so.

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

A tight surface pressure gradient will support NE-to-E gale-
force winds, to pulse overnight, in the coastal waters of
Colombia, during the next 48 hours. The sea heights will range
from 8 feet to 11 feet in this area.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC; the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST for the Gulf of Mexico:
MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC; the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST for the
Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC; or
go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml,
everything from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 05N,
to 05N08W, and to 03N14W. The ITCZ continues from 03N14W, to
02N20W and to 01N25W. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 05N
southward. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N southward
between 40W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. A surface
ridge extends from 26N in south Florida to the west central Gulf
of Mexico, near 25N92W. A surface trough is along 25N95W 28N99W
31N102W.

Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected in the western Gulf
of Mexico through tonight, in advance of the next cold front
that is forecast to enter the NW Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday
morning. The front will reach from SE Louisiana to near Tampico,
Mexico late on Wednesday. The front will reach from Tampa
Florida to the NE Yucatan Peninsula late on Thursday. The front
will move out of the area and be to the southeast of the Gulf of
Mexico on Friday. The wind speeds and the sea heights will
diminish on Friday and Saturday, as a high pressure center moves
eastward, across the northern parts of the Gulf of Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tight surface pressure gradient will support NE-to-E gale-
force winds, to pulse overnight, in the coastal waters of
Colombia, during the next 48 hours. The sea heights will range
from 8 feet to 11 feet in this area.

A dissipating cold front passes through 21N60W in the Atlantic
Ocean, to the NE coast of Puerto Rico. Precipitation:
rainshowers are possible from the northern coast of Puerto Rico
to 20N between the dissipating cold front and the Mona Passage.
Other precipitation: rainshowers are possible, elsewhere, across
the rest of the Caribbean Sea, in areas of broken low level
clouds, in trade wind flow, except for the area that is from 13N
southward between 70W and 78W.

High pressure, that is to the N of the area, will support fresh
to strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through
the forecast period. The wind speeds will be pulsing to minimal
gale-force off the coast of Colombia early this morning. Expect
fresh to strong southerly winds in the western Caribbean Sea,
including in the Yucatan Channel, from Wednesday through
Thursday, as another cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico.
The cold front is forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel from
Thursday night into Friday. The front will stall and dissipate
into Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N41W, to
26N50W, to 21N60W. The cold front is dissipating from 21N60W to
the NE corner of Puerto Rico. Precipitation: widely scattered to
scattered moderate to strong within 200 nm to the SE of the cold
front from 25N northward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is within 360 nm to the southeast of the cold front from
22N to 25N.

A surface trough is in the coastal waters of Africa, from
06N12W, to 16N17W, to 23N19W, to a 1016 mb low pressure center
is near 33N26W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 24N
northward from 20W eastward.

The current cold front is stalling and dissipating just to the
north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. High pressure will
move eastward along 28N through the middle of the week, in the
wake of the front. Southerly wind flow will increase to the
north of the Bahamas by Wednesday night. The southerly winds
will be in advance of the next cold front that will be moving
off the coast of Florida from Thursday night into Friday. It is
possible that southerly winds, ahead of the front, may reach
gale-force, off northeast Florida by late Thursday night. The
front will reach from 31N72W to the Straits of Florida on
Friday, and from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas by Saturday
morning.

$$
mt
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