[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Tue Feb 04 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

A tight surface pressure gradient off the coast of N Colombia
will support gale-force winds, to pulse overnight, through the
next 48 hours. The sea heights will range from 8 feet to 11 feet
in this area. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST:
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST:
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, everything from
the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia
near 0509W, to 03N14W, to the Equator along 17W. The ITCZ from
the Equator along 17W, to 01S20W, to 01S33W, to the coast of
Brazil near 03S39W. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 06N
southward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. A surface
ridge extends from Lake Okeechobee in south Florida, to the
border of Texas and Mexico near 26N97W.

Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected in the western Gulf
through Tue night, in advance of the next cold front forecast to
enter the NW Gulf by Wed morning. The front will reach from SE
Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico on Wed evening, and from the
western Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico by Thu
morning. The front is forecast to reach the SE Gulf by Thu
night. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are also expected
in the wake of the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tight surface pressure gradient off the coast of N Colombia
will support gale-force winds, to pulse overnight, through the
next 48 hours. The sea heights will range from 8 feet to 11 feet
in this area.

The cold front from 24 hours ago has weakened and dissipated.
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible to the northwest of the
line that runs from the Mona Passage, to 15N76W, to the coast of
Panama along 78W.

Rainshowers are possible, also, from 14N northward elsewhere
between 70W and 80W, and from 70W eastward, in areas of broken
low level clouds, in trade wind flow.

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade
winds across the south central Caribbean Sea through the
forecast period, pulsing to minimal gale force off Colombia at
night through Tuesday night. Expect fresh to strong southerly
winds across the western Caribbean Sea, including the Yucatan
Channel, from Wed through Thu, as another cold front moves
across the Gulf of Mexico. The cold front is forecast to reach
the Yucatan Channel from Thu night into Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N45W, to
28N50W, to 22N60W, to the Mona Passage. Precipitation: scattered
strong from 22N to 25N between 47W and 50W. Widely scattered to
scattered strong within 120 nm to the east of the cold front
from 26N northward.

A 1018 mb low pressure center is near 33N26W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 24N
northward between 17W and 22W.

The current cold front will dissipate from tonight into Tue.
High pressure will move eastward along 28N through mid week in
the wake of the front. Southerly flow will increase north of the
Bahamas by Wed night, in advance of the next cold front moving
off the coast of Florida from Thu night into Fri. Southerly
winds, ahead of the front, may reach gale-force off northeast
Florida by late Thu night. The front will reach from 31N72W to
the Straits of Florida on Fri, and from near Bermuda to the
central Bahamas by Sat morning.

$$
mt
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