[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032327
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
627 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

A tight surface pressure gradient off the coast of N Colombia
will support gale force winds to pulse overnight through the next
48 hours. Seas will range between 8-13 ft in this area. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W
to 02N16W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 01S30W to the
coast of Brazil near 03S39W. No significant convection is related
to these boundaries at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 03/2100 UTC, a 1022 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic
near 27N75W producing southernly return flow over the Gulf of
Mexico. 5-15 kt winds are over the E Gulf, E of 90W. 15-20 kt
winds are over the W Gulf. Radar imagery shows scattered moderate
convection over the far NW Gulf, W of 95W. This convection is
advecting in from the E Pacfic and NE Mexico. The central and E
Gulf has fair weather.

High pressure shifting over the western Atlantic today will
support fresh to strong southerly flow through Tue in the western
Gulf. The next cold front is expected to enter the northwest Gulf
by Wed and reach from the western Florida Panhandle to near
Veracruz Mexico by early Thu. The cold front will exit the
southeast Gulf by Fri. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are
expected on either side of the front, with near gale force
conditions possible over the northeast Gulf on Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect.

A weak stationary front extends from E Hispaniola near 19N69W to
the central Caribbean near 16N78W. Scattered showers are over
Hispaniola and Jamaica. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over
Belize, the Gulf of Honduras, Honduras, and N Nicaragua. More
scattered showers are over Costa Rica and Panama. Tradewinds are
over most of the Caribbean Sea. Wind speeds range from near gale
along the coast of Colombia to 10 kt over the Yucatan Channel.

In the upper levels, a broad ridge is over the Caribbean with
axis along 72W. Strong subsidence covers the entire area
suppressing deep convection.

The front will weaken tonight before dissipating Tue. High
pressure will pass eastward north of area in the wake of the
front. This will support strong trade winds across the south
central Caribbean through the period, pulsing to gale force off
Colombia tonight and Tuesday night. Another cold front will
approach the Yucatan Channel by Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1022 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 27N75W. A
cold front extends over the central Atlantic from 31N49W to
23N60W to E Hispaniola near 19N69W. Scattered moderate convection
is within 300 nm E of the front, mainly north of 23N. Scattered
showers are within 60 nm of the remainder of the front. A 1023 mb
high is over the E Atlantic near 27N38W.

Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the
central Atlantic supporting the surface front. A small upper level
trough is over the far E Atlantic where scattered showers are
about to advect over the Canary Islands.

The tail end of the cold front that is presently over the W
Atlantic will stall and dissipate tonight through Tue. The
northern portion of the front will continue to move east to the E
Atlantic through Thu. High pressure will move eastward along 28N
through mid week in the wake of the front. Southerly flow will
increase north of the Bahamas by Wed night, ahead of a cold front
moving off the coast by Fri. Southerly winds may reach gale force
by late Thu night off northeast Florida. The front should reach
from Bermuda to the Windward Passage Sat.

$$
Formosa
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