[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051204
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
704 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1150 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

A tight surface pressure gradient will support NE-to-E gale-
force winds to pulse overnight near the coast of Colombia during
the next 48 hours. The sea heights will range from 8 feet to 12
feet. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST:
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST:
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS
National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...
The 48-hour forecast consists of a cold front along 31N80W
29N81W. Expect SW gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from
11 feet to 16 feet, from 29N to 31N between 77W and 80W.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC,
the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the
NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...
The 36-hour forecast consists of a cold front along 30N87W to
19N95W. Expect SW-to-W gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging
from 11 feet to 13 feet, from 28N to 29N between 86W and 88W.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC,
the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, or go to the
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the
NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 05N,
to 04N10W, and to 03N21W. The ITCZ continues from 03N21W to
02N27W and 01N34W. Precipitation: scattered strong within 60 nm
to the north of the ITCZ between 25W and 29W. Isolated moderate
elsewhere from 04N southward between 22W and 40W. Scattered
strong is from the Equator southward between 38W and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1024 mb high
pressure center, that is near 28N66W, to interior sections of
Florida along 28N, to 27N91W. A surface trough extends from
Guatemala, to 21N98W in Mexico, to a 1004 mb low pressure center
that is near 27N101W. A cold front is in Texas, moving toward the
coast of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
isolated strong is in the coastal waters of Texas and NE Mexico.

Patchy fog in the northern Gulf of Mexico will dissipate through
the morning, in advance of a cold front that is expected to move
off the Texas coast during the early morning. The front will reach
from SE Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico tonight; from near
Tampa, Florida to the Yucatan Channel on Thursday night, and then
move to the southeast of the basin on Friday. Fresh to strong
winds and building seas are expected on either side of the front.
The southerly return flow is forecast to reach minimal gale-force
in the NE Gulf on Thursday. The wind speeds will slow down, and
the sea heights will diminish, on Friday and Saturday, as high
pressure moves northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico. It is
possible that a weak front may stall in the northern Gulf of
Mexico coast on Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is along 22N47W in the Atlantic Ocean, toward
the northern coast of Puerto Rico, and into the Mona Passage.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, from 23N in the Atlantic Ocean southward between 50W and
80W. Precipitation: broken to overcast low level clouds and
possible rainshowers are elsewhere, in trade wind flow.

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade
winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through the week. The
wind speeds will pulse to minimal gale-force off Colombia early
this morning and tonight. The trade wind flow will increase also
in the eastern Caribbean Sea on Thursday. Expect fresh to strong
southerly winds in the NW Caribbean Sea, including in the Yucatan
Channel, through Thursday night. This will be happening in advance
of a cold front that will move across the Gulf of Mexico. The
cold front is expected to reach the Yucatan Channel early on
Friday. The cold front will stall, and dissipate, from western
Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras, from Friday night into Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N33W, to 26N40W, and 22N47W. A
surface trough continues from 22N47W to 19N57W, toward the
northern coast of Puerto Rico, and into the Mona Passage. Broken
to overcast low and middle level clouds and possible rainshowers
cover the areas that are from 17N to 22N from 81W eastward, in
the Caribbean Sea and in the Atlantic Ocean. Rainshowers are
possible within 90 nm on either side of the frontal trough, and
from 20N northward between 20W and the frontal trough.

High pressure will move eastward along 29N through late today.
Southerly wind flow will strengthen to the north of the Bahamas
from tonight into Thursday. This will be happening in advance
of the next cold front, that will be moving off the coast of
Florida, from Thursday night into Friday. Southerly winds are
expected to reach gale-force off NE Florida by Thursday night.
The front is forecast to reach from 31N73W to western Cuba on
Friday, from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas on by Friday
night, and then stall from 29N65W to the SE Bahamas on Saturday
and Sunday.

$$
MT
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