[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031148
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
648 AM EST Mon Feb 3 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

A cold front passes through 32N53W, to 26N60W, to 20N69W, across
the central part of Hispaniola, and into the Caribbean Sea. Gale-
force SW winds, and sea heights ranging from 12 feet to 16 feet,
are to the east of the cold front, from 30.5N to 31N between 49.5W
and 53.5W. These conditions will last for another 24 hours or so.

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

Expect NE gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to
11 feet, from 11N to 12N between 74.5W and 75.5W, off the coast
of Colombia. These conditions will last for the next 24 hours or
so.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC,
the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, everything
from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 04W, to
04N10W 05N15W and 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W to
03N22W, 01N26W, crossing the Equator along 30W, and to 01S34W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within
150 nm to the south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between 15W and
20W. Isolated moderate is within 90 nm to the north of the monsoon
trough/ITCZ between 10W and 20W. Isolated moderate also is from
06N southward between 20W and the coast of Brazil.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. A 1023 mb
high pressure center is near 26N87W.

The current high pressure that is in the Gulf of Mexico will
shift to the east of the Gulf of Mexico later today. This pattern
will support fresh to strong southerly wind flow through Tuesday,
in the western Gulf, in advance of the next front. The next front
is expected to enter the NW Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. The next
front will reach from the Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz
Mexico by early Thursday. The front will push to the southeast of
the Gulf of Mexico on Friday. Fresh to strong winds and building
sea heights are expected on either side of the next front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Expect NE gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to
11 feet, from 11N to 12N between 74.5W and 75.5W, off the coast
of Colombia. These conditions will last for the next 24 hours or
so.

A cold front passes through 20N69W in the Atlantic Ocean, across
central Hispaniola, to 17N77W in the Caribbean Sea. The front
becomes stationary from 17N77W to eastern sections of Honduras,
along the border with Nicaragua. Precipitation: rainshowers are
possible to the northwest of the line that runs from the coast of
Costa Rica along 80W to the Mona Passage.

Rainshowers are possible, also, to the east of the cold front/
stationary front, in areas of broken low level clouds, in trade
wind flow.

The current frontal boundary will weaken through today. The front
will dissipate into Tuesday. High pressure building to the north
of the area, in the wake of the front, will support strong trade
winds across the south central Caribbean Sea through the period.
The wind speeds will be pulsing to gale-force off the coast of
Colombia at night, mainly at night, continuing through the middle
of the week. It is possible that another cold front may approach
the Yucatan Channel on Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N53W, to 26N60W, to 20N69W, across
the central part of Hispaniola, and into the Caribbean Sea. Gale-
force SW winds, and sea heights ranging from 12 feet to 16 feet,
are to the east of the cold front, from 30.5N to 31N between 49.5W
and 53.5W. These conditions will last for another 24 hours or so.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 400 nm to the east of the cold front from 25N northward.
Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and other possible
rainshowers are between the cold front and the line that runs from
SE Hispaniola beyond 32N38W. 24-hour rainfall totals that are
listed for the period that ended at 03/0000 UTC, according to the
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES,
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 1.96 in Bermuda.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the area
from 17N northward between Africa and 40W. A cold front passes
through 32N23W to 21N30W. The cold front is dissipating from
21N30W to 18N43W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated
strong is within 120 nm to the west of the cold front from 26N
northward. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible
rainshowers are within 360 nm to the east of the cold front from
20N northward.

The current western Atlantic Ocean cold front will stall along
roughly 20N today before dissipating through Tuesday. High
pressure will move from west to east along 28N, through the
middle of the week, in the wake of the front. Southerly wind flow
will increase to the north of the Bahamas by Wednesday night. The
wind flow will reach gale-force of the coast of NE Florida by
Thursday night, in advance of a cold front that will be moving off
the coast by early Friday. The cold front will reach from Bermuda
to the Windward Passage on Saturday.

$$
MT
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