[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031717
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1217 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

A tight surface pressure gradient off the coast of N Colombia
will support gale force winds to pulse overnight through the next
48 hours. Seas will range between 9-11 ft in this area. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 06N10W
to 04N22W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03N42W. No
significant convection is related to these boundaries at this
time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1023 mb
high is centered over Florida near 27N81W. Scatterometer data
depicts moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds across the basin.

The high pressure will shift over the western Atlantic today. The
next cold front is expected to enter the northwest Gulf by Wed
and reach from the western Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz
Mexico by early Thu. The cold front will exit the southeast Gulf
by Fri. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected on
either side of the front, with near gale force conditions possible
over the northeast Gulf on Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect.

A cold front extends across the basin 18N70W to 14N83W. Scattered
showers are noted along the front. Fresh northerly winds cover
the NW Caribbean behind the front. Dry air covers the remainder of
the basin, with the latest ASCAT pass depicting fresh trades in
the south-central Caribbean, with strong to near-gale force in a
small area near the coast of Colombia.

The cold front will stall and weaken through tonight before
dissipating into Tue. High pressure will pass eastward north of
area in the wake of the front. This will support strong trade
winds across the south central Caribbean through the period,
pulsing to gale force off Colombia tonight and Tuesday night.
Another cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel by Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends over the central Atlantic from 31N51W to
19N69W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the
front mainly north of 27N. Surface ridging is building behind the
front across the western Atlantic. To the east of the front, a
1025 mb surface high is centered near 30N37W. A weakening frontal
boundary extends across the far east Atlantic from 31N24W to
19N28W.

The cold front will stall along roughly 20N today before
dissipating through Tue. High pressure will move eastward along
28N through mid week in the wake of the front. Southerly flow will
increase north of the Bahamas by Wed night, ahead of a cold front
moving off the coast by Fri. Southerly winds may reach gale force
by late Thu night off northeast Florida. The front should reach
from Bermuda to the Windward Passage Sat.

$$

ERA
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