[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030553
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1252 AM EST Mon Feb 3 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

A cold front passes through 32N57W, to 29N60W, to 24N66W, across
the northern part of Haiti, and into the Caribbean Sea. Gale-force
SW-to-W winds, and sea heights ranging from 12 feet to 17 feet,
are to the east of the cold front, from 29N to 31N between 53W and
61W. These conditions will last for another 12 hours or so.

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

Expect NE gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to
11 feet, from 10N to 12N between 74W and 76W, off the coast of
Colombia. These conditions will last for the next 12 hours or so.
The wind speeds will slow down, to less than gale-force, this
morning, on Monday morning. Gale-force wind conditions will start
again on Monday night, and last for another 12 hours or so.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC,
the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, everything
from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of
Sierra Leone and Liberia, to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from
04N19W to 02N30W, crossing the Equator along 37W, to the coast of
Brazil near 02N44W. Precipitation: Isolated moderate is from
06N southward from 40W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. A 1023 mb
high pressure center is near 26N88W.

The current high pressure that is in the Gulf of Mexico will
shift eastward, with time, through Monday. This pattern will
support fresh to strong southerly flow from Monday through
Tuesday, in the western Gulf, in advance of the next front. The
next front is expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico by early
Wednesday. The next front will reach from SE Louisiana to the
southwest Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday night. The next front will
move to the southeast of the basin by the end of the week. Fresh
to strong winds and building seas are expected on either side of
the next front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Expect NE gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to
11 feet, from 10N to 12N between 74W and 76W, off the coast of
Colombia. These conditions will last for the next 12 hours or so.
The wind speeds will slow down, to less than gale-force, this
morning, on Monday morning. Gale-force wind conditions will start
again on Monday night, and last for another 12 hours or so.

A cold front passes through 21N70W in the Atlantic Ocean, across
northern sections of Haiti, to eastern Jamaica, to eastern
sections of Honduras, along the border with Nicaragua.
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible to the northwest of the
line that runs from the coast of Costa Rica along 80W to SW
Haiti.

Rainshowers are possible, also, from 70W eastward, in areas of
broken low level clouds, in trade wind flow.

The current cold front will weaken, from tonight through Monday.
The front will dissipate into Tuesday. High pressure building to
the north of the area, in the wake of the front, will support
strong trade winds across the south central Caribbean Sea through
the period. The wind speeds will be pulsing to gale-force off the
coast of Colombia at night, beginning tonight and continuing
through the middle of the week. It is possible that another cold
front may approach the Yucatan Channel by the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N57W, to 29N60W, to 24N66W, across
the northern part of Haiti, and into the Caribbean Sea. Gale-force
SW-to-W winds, and sea heights ranging from 12 feet to 17 feet,
are to the east of the cold front, from 29N to 31N between 53W and
61W. These conditions will last for another 12 hours or so.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 300 nm to the east of the cold front from 27N northward.
Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and other possible
rainshowers are to the west of the line that runs from eastern
Hispaniola beyond 32N40W. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed
for the period that ended at 03/0000 UTC...according to the PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...are 1.96 in Bermuda.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the area
from 18N northward between 19W and 40W. A cold front passes
through 32N24W to 23N30W, to 19N40W. The cold front is
dissipating from 19N40W to 20N47W. Precipitation: Broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are within
200 nm on either side of the line that runs from 18N30W to 26N25W
beyond 32N24W.

The current western Atlantic Ocean cold front will move
southeastward, and reach from the southeast waters and near Puerto
Rico, from later tonight into Monday. Fresh to near gale- force
winds behind the front will diminish tonight. Large and fresh seas
gradually will subside. High pressure will build in behind the
front, from west to east, through the middle of the week. Fresh to
strong southerly winds are expected by the end of the week ahead
of the next cold front. The next cold front is forecast to shift
off Florida on Friday, reaching from near Bermuda to the SE
Bahamas by late Friday night.

$$
MT
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