[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231709
TWDAT

000
AXNT20 KNHC 231745
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Dec 23 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A cold front will be in the Gulf of Mexico on 24/0600 UTC, along
30N92W to 26N97W. Expect northerly gale-force winds, and sea
heights in excess of 10 feet, to the NW of the cold front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

The same cold front will be in the Atlantic Ocean on 25/0600 UTC
along 31N77W to 23N81W. Expect S-to-SW gale-force winds, and sea
heights ranging from 10 feet to 15 feet, N of 29N W of 77W.

Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued
by the National Hurricane Center, at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

NE Gale-force winds are forecast in the METEO-FRANCE area of
IRVING, from present TO 24/0000 UTC. The outlook for the
24 hours after the initial forecast period consists of
gale-force winds in the areas: IRVING and METEOR.
Please read the latest forecasts, from the webpage:
http://www.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST.2119.2
221200130462.html, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal section of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 06N15W. The ITCZ continues from 06N15W to
05N30W to 05N40W to the coast of N Brazil near 02N50W. Isolated
moderate convection is S of the monsoon trough from 03N-06N
between 00W-15W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-08N
between 15W-39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1031 mb high
pressure center in eastern Virginia near 37N77W to the Yucatan
Peninsula near 20N89W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow prevails
across the entire Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure across the basin will shift eastward today ahead of
a strong cold front. The front will enter the NW Gulf early Thu,
with widespread gale-force winds expected northwest of the front
as it races southward across the basin through early Fri. Seas
will build in excess of 10 ft behind the front on Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the region and the monsoon trough, which
extends from the eastern Pacific Ocean into northern Colombia
near 11N73W, is supporting fresh to strong NE to E trade winds in
the south-central Caribbean. Recent scatterometer data showed 25
to 30 kt NE winds near the coast of Colombia. Isolated trade wind
showers are observed across the basin today.

NE winds will pulse to near gale-force at night near the coast
of Colombia through Thu morning. A strong cold front will reach
the Yucatan Channel Thu night, extend from eastern Cuba to
northern Honduras on Fri, then stall and weaken from Haiti to
Costa Rica on Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes from 31N55W to 25N66W. A stationary front
continues to the central Bahamas near 23N75W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 120 nm of the fronts. A surface trough is
along 62W from 24N-16N. Broken to overcast multi-layered clouds
and isolated showers are occurring near the trough axis. Further
east, a stationary front passes through 31N24W to 27N23W to
24N28W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the front.

A strong cold front will move east of Florida Thu night. Strong
southerly winds to gale-force are expected ahead of the front,
with winds shifting quickly to west then northwest on Fri as the
front moves eastward. Seas will rapidly build in the western
Atlantic as the front passes. The front will extend from 31N76W
to northern Cuba early Fri, from 31N69W to eastern Cuba Fri
night, and from 28N65W to the Windward Passage on Sat.

$$
Formosa
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net