[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231035
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Dec 23 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A cold front will be in the Gulf of Mexico in 24 hours, along
30N92W to 26N97W. Expect northerly gale-force winds, and sea
heights in excess of 10 feet, to the NW of the cold front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

The same cold front will be in the Atlantic Ocean in 48 hours,
along 31N77W to 23N81W. Expect S-to-SW gale-force winds, and sea
heights ranging from 10 feet to 15 feet, N of 29N W of 77W.

Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued
by the National Hurricane Center, at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

NE Gale-force winds are forecast to develop in the METEO-FRANCE
area of IRVING, from 23/12 UTC TO 24/00 UTC. The outlook for the
24 hours after the initial forecast period consists of gale-force
winds in the areas: IRVING and METEOR. Please read the latest
forecasts, from the webpage:
http://www.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST.2119.2
221200130462.html, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone and Liberia near 07N11W, to 06N15W. The ITCZ continues
from 06N15W, to 05N20W, 04N30W, 04N40W, 06N50w, and 07N57W at
the coast of Guyana. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 02N to 09N between 17W and 43W. Isolated showers are
elsewhere from 11N southward and 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1025 mb high pressure
center in central Georgia near 33N83W to the coast of Mexico, in
the SW Gulf of Mexico, near 20N97W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow
prevails across the entire Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure across the basin will shift eastward today, ahead
of a strong cold front. The front will enter the NW Gulf late
tonight or early Thursday, with widespread gale-force winds
expected northwest of the front as it races southward across the
basin through early Friday. The sea heights will build in excess
of 10 feet, behind the front, on Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the region and the monsoon trough, which
extends from the eastern Pacific Ocean into northern Colombia
near 11N73W, is supporting fresh to strong NE to E trade winds in
the south-central Caribbean. Recent scatterometer data showed 25
to 30 kt NE winds near the coast of Colombia. Isolated trade wind
showers are observed across the basin this morning.

NE winds will pulse to near gale-force at night near the coast of
Colombia through Thursday morning. A strong cold front pushing
through the Gulf of Mexico will reach the Yucatan Channel Thursday
night. The cold front will extend from eastern Cuba to northern
Honduras on Friday, then stall and weaken from Haiti to Costa
Rica on Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes from 32N59W to 23N75W in the central Bahamas.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 240
nm to the SE of the cold front from 26N northward, and within 150
nm to the SE of the cold front from 23N to 26N.

A surface trough is along 60W from 16N to 24N. Broken to overcast
multi-layered clouds and isolated showers are occurring near the
trough axis.

Further east, a stationary front passes through 32N21W to 25N31W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed north of
28N between 18W and 27W.

The current cold front will stall and weaken from 26N65W to the
southern Bahamas today. A stronger cold front will move east of
Florida Thursday night. Strong southerly winds to gale-force are
expected ahead of the front, which will shift quickly to west then
northwest on Fri as the front moves eastward. Seas will rapidly
build in the western Atlantic as the front passes. The front will
extend from 31N76W to northern Cuba early Friday, from 31N69W to
eastern Cuba Friday night, and from 28N65W to the Windward Passage
on Saturday.

$$
Mundell
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