[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230557
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Dec 23 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A cold front will be in the Gulf of Mexico, in 30 hours, along
30N92W 26N97W. Expect N gale-force winds, and sea heights
reaching 8 feet, to the NW of the cold front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

A cold front will be in the Atlantic Ocean, in 48 hours, along
31N79W 28N81W. Expect S-to-SW gale-force winds, and sea heights
ranging from 11 feet to 15 feet, N of 29N W of 77W.

Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued
by the National Hurricane Center, at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

NE Gale-force winds are forecast to develop in the METEO-FRANCE
area of IRVING, from 23/12 UTC TO 24/00 UTC. The outlook, for
the 24 hours after the initial forecast period, consists of
gale-force winds in the areas: IRVING and METEOR. Please, read
the latest forecasts, from the webpage:
http://www.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST.2119.2
221200130462.html, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone and Liberia near 07N11W, to 06N15W. The ITCZ continues
from 06N15W, to 05N20W, 04N30W, 04N40W, 06N50w, and 07N57W at
the coast of Guyana. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely
scattered strong is from 05N to 06N between 23W and 25W, and
from 06N to 08N between 28W and 33W; from 03N to 05N between 29W
and 34W; widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from
05N to 08N between 35W and 42W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere
from 11N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level W-to-NW wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure center that
is along the Alabama/Georgia border near 34N85W, southwestward,
to the coast of Mexico, in the SW Gulf of Mexico, near 20N97W.
Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure across the basin will shift eastward through
Wednesday. A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico
early on Thursday. Expect widespread gale-force winds to the
northwest of the front, as the cold front races southward across
the basin through early Friday. The sea heights will build in
excess of 10 feet, behind the front, on Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level ridge extends from the Colombia/Panama border,
into the eastern Pacific Ocean, to 12N98W. Upper level W-to-NW
wind flow, anticyclonic wind flow, spans the entire Caribbean
Sea. Comparatively drier air in subsidence, is apparent in water
vapor imagery, in the Caribbean Sea.

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 11N73W,
southwestward, beyond the border of Colombia and Panama, into
the eastern Pacific Ocean, beyond 06N80W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is from 12N southward from 70W westward.

Rainshowers are possible elsewhere, in scattered to broken low
level clouds that are moving through the area, from 70W
eastward, and from 12N northward from 70W westward.

NE winds will pulse to near gale-force at night near the coast
of Colombia through Thursday morning. A strong cold front,
pushing through the Gulf of Mexico, will reach the Yucatan
Channel on Thursday night. The cold front will extend from
eastern Cuba to northern Honduras onFriday, then stall, and
weaken from Haiti to Costa Rica on Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N61W, to 26N60W, and to the
Bahamas from 23N to 24N between 75W and 76W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm to
the SE of the cold front from 29N northward, and within 150 nm
to the SE of the cold front from 24N to 29N.

A surface trough is along 58W/59W from 16N to 24N.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
isolated moderate is from 16N to 24N between 58W and 64W.

A stationary front passes through 32N21W to 28N26W to 25N32W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 29N northward between 19W and 27W.

The current cold front, that is extending from 29N64W to the
central Bahamas, will stall and weaken from 26N65W to the
central Bahamas on Wednesday. A strong cold front will move to
the east of Florida on Thursday night. Strong southerly winds to
gale-force are expected ahead of the front, shifting quickly to
west then northwest on Friday, as the front moves eastward. The
sea heights will build rapidly across the western Atlantic
Ocean, as the front passes. The front will extend from 31N76W to
northern Cuba early on Friday, from 31N69W to eastern Cuba on
Friday night, and from 28N65W to the Windward Passage on
Saturday.

$$
mt/dm
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