[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232206
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Dec 23 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico early Thu.
Widespread gale force winds will develop in the wake of the
front. Winds will diminish below gale force late Thu night as
the front shifts SE of the Gulf waters. Sea heights will build
in excess of 10 feet behind the front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

The same cold front will bring gales to the Gulf of Mexico will
move off the SE coast of the Unites States Thu night. Southerly
winds ahead of the front will increase to gale force Thu
afternoon through the evening. Winds will diminish below gale
force late Thu night.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

NE Gale-force winds are forecast in the METEO-FRANCE area of
IRVING until 24/0000 UTC. The outlook for the 24 hours after the
initial forecast period consists of gale-force winds in the
areas: IRVING and METEOR. Please read the latest forecasts at:
http://www.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST.2119.2
221200130462.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N13W to 06N15W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N15W to 05N30W to 05N40W to the coast of N
Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
02N to 08N between 15W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see above for more on the upcoming gales in the Gulf of
Mexico.

A surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1030 mb high
pressure centered near 37N77W to the SW Gulf of Mexico. Moderate
to fresh southerly return flow prevails over the NW Gulf, with
gentle to moderate anticyclonic wind flow prevailing elsewhere
across the Gulf of Mexico. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range over the
NW Gulf, and 2-4 ft over the remainder of the Gulf waters.

High pressure across the basin will shift eastward tonight ahead
of a strong cold front in Texas. The front will enter the NW
Gulf around midnight tonight, with widespread gale- force winds
expected immediately behind the front as it races southeastward
across the entire basin through early Fri. A broad area of seas
in excess of 12 ft will build behind the front Thu through Thu
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure prevails north of the region. The pressure gradient
between this area of high pressure and climatological low
pressure over Colombia is supporting fresh to strong winds over
the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere.
Seas are in the 7-10 ft range over the central Caribbean, 5-7 ft
over the eastern Caribbean, and 4-6 ft over the western
Caribbean.

Strong tradewinds across the NE and central Caribbean will pulse
to near gale-force tonight near the coast of Colombia. A strong
cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel Thu night. The front
will extend from central Cuba along to the interior Gulf of
Honduras Fri morning, then will stall and weaken from far E Cuba
to SE coast of Nicaragua Sat morning through Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N52W to 27N61W where it becomes
stationary to central Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is
within 120 nm of the front. Moderate to fresh winds prevail west
of the front. Seas are in the 7-10 ft range over the open waters
west of the front to 74W, and 4-6 ft over the open waters west of
70W. A surface trough is along 64W from 24N- 16N. Isolated
showers are noted near the trough axis. Moderate to fresh winds
and seas of 7-9 ft are in the vicinity of the front. Farther
east, low pressure of 1013 mb is centered near 32N83W. A
stationary front extends from the front to near 24N26W. Scattered
showers are noted within 180 nm of the front. Fresh to strong
winds, and seas of 8-12 ft prevail within 510 nm west of the
front N of 26N. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and seas of
7-9 ft prevail north of 20N. Fresh to locally strong winds and
seas of 7-10 ft prevail S of 20N.

The cold front will become E to W aligned along 26N Thu then
begin to lift N ahead of an approaching strong cold front. This
strong cold front will move into the W Atlc early Thu night, with
strong southerly winds to gale-force expected offshore of NE
Florida ahead of the front Thu afternoon through night. The front
will extend from 31N75W to Cuba along 23N80.5W Fri morning, then
begin to slow and weaken from 31N67W to far E Cuba Sat morning,
then stall from 31N60W to E Cuba Sun morning, before drifting NW
Mon.

$$
AL
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