[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180509
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Dec 18 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0440 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 09N13W, to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W, to
03N30W, and to 02N45W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is within 210 nm to the south of the monsoon
trough between 09W and 12W; and within 330 nm to the north of
the ITCZ between 30W and 43W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is within 210 nm to the north of the monsoon trough and
ITCZ, between 15W and 23W. Other rainshowers are possible,
elsewhere, from 11N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level SW wind flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front passes through 25N80W, just off the SE coast of
Florida, to the Yucatan Channel, to the northeastern part of the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong covers the inland areas that
are from the northern half of Guatemala to the Yucatan
Peninsula.

A surface ridge extends from a 1027 mb high pressure center that
is in west central Mississippi, through southern coastal
Louisiana, southwestward, to the coast of Mexico near 21N97W.
Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.

The current slowly-moving cold front, that extends from the
Florida Keys to the Yucatan Peninsula, will exit the basin
overnight. Fresh to strong northerly winds will continue across
the Bay of Campeche through Friday morning. High pressure will
build across the Gulf of Mexico on Friday and Saturday. The next
cold front will move into the NW Gulf of by Saturday evening,
and move SE across the basin through Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow, with a ridge, covers
most of the Caribbean Sea. The southwesternmost part of an upper
level trough reaches the easternmost sections of the Caribbean
Sea.

A cold front passes through 25N80W, just off the SE coast of
Florida, to the Yucatan Channel, to the northeastern part of the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong covers the inland areas that
are from the northern half of Guatemala to the Yucatan
Peninsula, and from 85W westward in the NW part of the Caribbean
Sea.

Rainshowers are possible, in scattered to broken low level
clouds that are moving through the area, from 70W eastward, and
from 13N northward from 70W westward.

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 11N73W,
southwestward, into the eastern Pacific Ocean, beyond 07N79W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is elsewhere from 13N southward
from 72W westward to the coasts of the countries of Central
America.

A weakening cold front will move slowly SE across the Yucatan
Channel and NW Caribbean Sea, through Friday, before
dissipating. Strong high pressure to the north of the front will
produce fresh to strong NE trade winds across much of the area,
on Friday and Saturday, and then diminish on Sunday and Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N70W, across the NW Bahamas, to
25N80W off the SE coast of Florida, to the Yucatan Channel.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 60 nm
to 120 nm on either side of the front from the Straits of
Florida northeastward.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
20N northward between 40W and 70W. One surface trough is along
31N52W 28N56W 24N60W. A second surface trough is from 20N to 25N
between 68W and 70W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is in the
area of upper level anticyclonic wind flow.

A 1028 mb high pressure center is near 30N31W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 15N
northward from 50W eastward.

The current cold front will reach from near Bermuda to central
Cuba on Friday afternoon. Fresh to strong southwesterly winds
are expected N of 29N ahead of the front through Friday. The
front will weaken gradually, along 24N, through Sunday. A second
cold front will move east to the of Florida on Monday night.

$$
mt/dm
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net