[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172337
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Dec 17 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 01S44W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from
02N-12N E of 21W, and scattered moderate convection between 21W
40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Strong upper level SW wind flow covers the entire Gulf of Mexico
and is producing a very progressive upper level pattern across
the southeastern U.S. At the surface, a cold front extends from
southwest FL to near 24N82W then becomes stationary to central
Bay of Campeche near 18N93W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are noted in the vicinity of the front. A 10287mb high is over
eastern Texas and is driving fresh to strong northerly winds
behind the front south of 22N and west of 90W, where seas are
still 8-10 ft in north swell. Fresh northerly winds are noted in
the Bay of Campeche in addition to moderate northerly winds in
the western Gulf. Seas for the rest of the basin are 3-6 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds will continue
north of the front across the Bay of Campeche through Fri morning
before diminishing. High pressure will build across the Gulf Fri
and Sat to produce fresh to locally strong E to SE winds across
the basin. The next cold front will move into the northwest Gulf
by Sat evening and move slowly SE through Mon, reaching the
Florida Panhandle to the SW Gulf

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level ridge causing subsidence dominates the NW Caribbean
and is producing very stable conditions across most of the basin.
A surface trough extending south of Cuba from 16N82W to 21N82W is
producing some isolated showers. Elsewhere, a cluster of isolated
moderate convection is near 09N between 80W-83W, off the coast
of Costa Rica and Panama City. Fresh to strong E-NE winds are
located off the coast of Colombia where seas are 7-9 ft. Gentle
to moderate trades are noted in the eastern and central Caribbean
with light to gentle winds in the NW Caribbean where seas are
3-6 ft.

The stationary front will exit the Gulf of Mexico and move into
the NW Caribbean tonight. The front will weaken and move slowly
SE across the Yucatan Channel and NW Caribbean through Fri
before dissipating. Strong high pressure north of the front will
produce fresh to strong NE tradewinds across much of the area Fri
and Sat before diminishing modestly Sun and Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front stretches from 31N72W to South Florida coast near
26N80W. A pre-frontal trough is located north of the Bahamas
from 29N74W to just north of Cuba near 24N79W. Scattered showers
are noted north of 31N and about 90 nm ahead of the front.
Gentle to moderate NW winds are noted behind the cold front and
moderate southerly winds are ahead of the front. Seas are up to 7
ft near the Florida coast. In the central Atlantic, an elongated
trough is located near 29N54W to just north of Hispaniola near
20N69W. No significant convection is associated with this feature.
Farther east, surface ridging extends across the eastern and
central Atlantic anchored by a 1027 mb high near 29N29W. Light
to gentle winds prevail with seas 5-8 ft.

The cold front will move slowly SE, reaching from near Bermuda
through the central Bahamas to central Cuba Fri afternoon. Expect
fresh to strong southwesterly winds ahead of the front N of 29N
through Fri. The front will gradually weaken and become E to W
aligned along 24N Sun. High pressure will prevail north of the
front.

$$
Torres
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