[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Dec 18 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 09N13W to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to
03N28W to 02N45W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is near
the coast of Africa, north of 05N between 10W and 13W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 08N
between 22W and 42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is exiting the region, and extends from northern Cuba
across the Yucatan Channel and the Yucatan peninsula to 19N92W.
1029 mb high pressure is centered over southern Mississippi near
31N89W. A ridge of high pressure northwest of the cold front and
anticyclonic wind flow prevails across the entire basin. Few if
any showers are observed this morning.

High pressure will prevail across the region through Saturday.
A cold front will move into the NW Gulf Saturday evening, reach
from southern Mississippi and Alabama to the Bay of Campeche on
Sunday, from central Florida to the Yucatan peninsula on Monday,
then exit the basin on Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes from northern Cuba across the Yucatan Channel
to the northern part of the Yucatan peninsula. A few showers are
along the frontal boundary. The monsoon trough extends northeast
from the eastern Pacific Ocean into northern Colombia. Zonal wind
flow prevails across the basin. No significant areas of organized
convection are apparent from satellite imagery.

The cold front across the Yucatan Channel will weaken as it moves
into the NW Caribbean today, then gradually dissipate. High
pressure north of the area will support fresh NE trade winds
across much of the area through Sunday, then diminish on Monday as
a cold front moves across Florida. Highest winds and seas will be
in the southern Caribbean near the coast of Colombia.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes from a 1014 mb low centered near 32N72W across
the northern Bahamas and the Straits of Florida to northern Cuba
near 23N82W. Broken to overcast multi-layered clouds and isolated
showers are within 60 to 120 nm on either side of the frontal
boundary. A surface trough is analyzed from 28N68W to 20N70W, with
isolated showers along the trough axis. A broad ridge along 30N
spans most of the east-central Atlantic, anchored by a 1026 mb
high centered near 30N31W. Isolated showers not associated with
the ITCZ are noted from 10N to 20N between 38W and 55W.

The cold front extending from 31N70W will reach from 28N65W to
central Cuba tonight. Fresh to strong winds are expected N of 29N
on either side of the front today. The front will gradually weaken
along 23N through Sunday. A second cold front will move east of
Florida on Monday.

$$
Mundell
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