[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161103
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Dec 16 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front has moved into the NW Gulf of Mexico overnight and
extends from the central Louisiana coast to the upper Mexican
coast. The front will move SE today and reach from the Florida Big
Bend to the central Bay of Campeche by this evening. As it moves
across the west and central portions this morning, expected brief
northerly gales behind the front offshore of Tampico, with gales
then shifting to offshore of Veracruz late morning through late
afternoon before ending this evening. Seas will quickly build to
8-11 ft behind the front west of 93W, and up to 12 ft across the
Veracruz waters this evening. Please, read the latest High Seas
Forecast, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from
06N20W to 02N40W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 02N to 09N east of 56W to the African coast.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1011 mb low pressure center is offshore of the central Louisiana
coast near 29N92W. A cold front extends from the low to the upper
coast of Mexico near 25N97.5W. Strong N-NW winds 25 to 30 kt are
filling in behind the advancing front with seas building to around
8 ft in the past couple of hours. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is occurring within 180 nm east of the low
center and the cold front, from 25N to 30N.

The current cold front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to
the central Bay of Campeche this evening. Strong northerly winds
will spread southward behind the front, to the W of 90W. Brief
northerly gales will move across the Tampico waters at sunrise,
then shift to offshore of Veracruz during much of the day. Winds
and seas heights will diminish gradually Thu, as high pressure
builds across the northern Gulf of Mexico, and the front sinks to
the SE of the basin Thu evening. A next cold front will move into
the northwest Gulf of Mexico by Saturday afternoon, and move
slowly SE through Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow, spans the Caribbean
Sea, producing stable atmospheric conditions across much of the
basin. Rainshowers are possible, in scattered to broken low
level clouds that are moving through the area, from 70W eastward,
and from 15N northward from 70W westward.

The monsoon trough is along 07N/11N from 73W in N Colombia,
beyond Panama. Isolated moderate convection is across the SW
Caribbean offshore of Nicaragua.

Weak high pressure centered NE of the Bahamas is supporting
moderate to fresh winds across the central Caribbean, with gentle
to light winds elsewhere. High pressure will begin to strengthen
to the north of the area tonight through Thu, and will freshen
tradewinds across most of the basin. Winds near Colombia will
begin to pulse to strong each night through Sat night. A weakening
cold front will move slowly SE across the Yucatan Channel and NW
Caribbean Thu night through Fri before dissipating. Strong high
pressure north of the front will produce fresh to strong NE
tradewinds across much of the area through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1012 mb low pressure center is offshore of the Georgia coast
with a weak cold front trailing S-SW to near Fort Pierce, Florida.
A warm front extends eastward from the low along 32W to the
central Atlantic. Strong northerly winds are across the west
semicircle of the low and extend to the coast of Georgia and just
into the waters offshore of Jacksonville, Florida. Isolated
showers and tstorms are just south of the warm front between
67W and 75W.

Deep layered low pressure across the central Atlantic has produce
a surface trough from 28N57W to a 1013 mb low pressure center
near 24N58W to 20N62W. Moderate to fresh NE winds prevail within
300 nm NW of the trough, where seas are 6-8 ft. A weak 1018 mb
high is centered NW of the trough near 27N67W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is from 18N to 24N between 50W and 54W, and
extends northeastward to beyond 31N45W.

A 1024 mb high pressure center is near 30N34W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from the tropical
Atlantic northward to 25N and east of the surface trough.

The low offshore of Georgia will lift northeastward today with
the frontal boundary remaining nearly stationary and dissipating.
The deep layer trough to the NE of the NE Caribbean will drift
westward across the SE offshore waters and weaken by Thu morning.
The next cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast
tonight, then slide slowly SE and reach from near Bermuda through
the central Bahamas to central Cuba Fri. Expect fresh to strong
southwesterly winds ahead of the front N of 28N this evening
through Thu. The front will gradually weaken and become E to W
aligned along 24N Sun morning.

$$
Stripling
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net