[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 161732
TWDAT

000
AXNT20 KNHC 161745
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Dec 16 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

As of 16/1500 UTC, a 1009 mb low is centered over the NE Gulf
of Mexico near 30N87W. A cold front extends SW to the Bay of
Campeche near 19N94W. Northerly gales are behind the front
offshore of Veracruz Mexico ending this evening. Seas will
quickly build to 8-11 ft behind the front west of 93W, and
up to 12 ft across the Veracruz waters this evening. Please,
read the latest High Seas Forecast, at https://www.nhc.noaa.
gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from
05N20W to 03N40W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is from 02N-10N between 00W-26W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 01N-09N between 26W-55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A gale is over the SW Gulf. See above. As of 16/1500 UTC, a
1009 mb low is centered over the NE Gulf of Mexico near 30N87W.
A cold front extends SW to the Bay of Campeche near 19N94W. A
warm front extends E of the low to Spring Hill Florida to
Daytona Beach Florida. Radar imagery shows scattered moderate
convection in the warm airmass N of 26N between 80W-89W to
include north and central Florida. The frontal system is
rapidly moving ENE.

Northerly gales will prevail off Veracruz, Mexico waters until
this evening. Winds and seas will gradually diminish through
Fri as high pressure builds across the northern Gulf and the
front sinks SE of the basin. The next cold front will move
into the northwest Gulf by Sat night and move slowly SE through
Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the western
Caribbean Sea west of 70W. Cyclonic wind flow is over the
eastern Caribbean. Stable upper level atmospheric conditions
with subsidence is over the entire Caribbean. Scattered showers
are, however, along the coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica.

High pressure north of the area is supporting moderate to fresh
winds across the central Caribbean. High pressure will begin to
strengthen to the north of the area Wed night through Thu, which
will freshen tradewinds across most of the basin. Winds near
Colombia will begin to pulse to strong each night through Sat
night. A weakening cold front will move slowly SE across the
Yucatan Channel and NW Caribbean Thu night through Fri before
dissipating. Strong high pressure north of the front will
produce fresh to strong NE tradewinds across much of the area
through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 16/1500 UTC, a warm front extends over the W Atlantic from
31N79W to Daytona Beach Florida. Scattered moderate convection is
N of 28N and W of 77W. A 1019 mb high is over the W Atlantic near
27N67W producing fair weather. A surface trough is over the
central Atlantic from 28N55W to the Leeward Islands near 18N63W.
Scattered showers are well E of the trough axis due to upper
level diffluence. A 1028 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic
near 30N31W.

The Gulf of Mexico cold front will move to the northeast Florida
coast tonight, then slide slowly SE and reach from near Bermuda
through the central Bahamas to central Cuba Fri. Expect fresh to
strong southwesterly winds ahead of the front N of 28N this
evening through Thu. The front will gradually weaken and become
E to W aligned along 24N Sun morning.

$$
Formosa
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