[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Dec 16 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The forecast for Wednesday morning consists of a cold front in
the Gulf of Mexico along 30.5N89W 26N90W 21N96.5W 18.5N95W.
Expect NW gale-force winds, and sea heights reaching 8 feet,
within 60 nm of the coast of Mexico at Veracruz, from FROM 19.5N
to 20.5N. The gale-force winds will last for 12 hours or so.
Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from
06N20W, to 05N30W, and to 02N40W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong, in general, is from 10N
southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1010 mb low pressure center is at the SW coast of Louisiana
near 30N93W. A warm front extends eastward from the low pressure
center to 29N91W in the coastal plains of Louisiana. A cold
front extends to the SW of the 1010 mb low pressure center, to
the Deep South of Texas. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
within 450 nm of the center, to the ESE, from 26N to 30N from
85W westward.

The current cold front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to
the central Bay of Campeche on Wednesday evening. Strong
northerly winds will build behind the front, to the W of 90W,
from tonight through Wednesday. Gale-force winds will be
offshore Veracruz during much of the day on Wednesday. The wind
speeds and the sea heights will diminish gradually through
Friday, as high pressure builds across the northern Gulf of
Mexico, and the front sinks to the SE of the basin. A third
front will move into the northwest Gulf of Mexico by Saturday
night, and reach the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow, with a ridge, spans
the Caribbean Sea.

Rainshowers are possible, in scattered to broken low level
clouds that are moving through the area, from 70W eastward, and
from 15N northward from 70W westward.

The monsoon trough is along 07N/11N from 73W in N Colombia,
beyond Panama. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is elsewhere from 15N southward from 78W westward to the
coasts of the countries of Central America.

Weak high pressure, that is centered to the NE of the Bahamas,
is supporting modest winds and seas across the basin. High
pressure will begin to strengthen to the north of the area, from
Wednesday night through Thursday. The trade winds will
strengthen across the south central sections. The wind speeds
near Colombia will begin to pulse to strong, each night through
Saturday night. A weakening cold front will move slowly SE
across the Yucatan Channel and the NW Caribbean sea, from
Thursday night through Friday, before dissipating. Strong high
pressure to the north of the front will produce fresh to strong
NE trade winds across much of the area through Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N61W to 30N68W and 30N73W. A warm
front continues from 30N73W to 30N78W, to a 1012 mb low pressure
center that is near 31N80W. A cold front extends southwestward,
from the low pressure center, to the Florida east coast near
29N. The front cuts across Florida, to the Florida west coast
near 27N. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 27N northward
from 67W westward.

A surface trough is along 28N56W, to a 1013 mb low pressure
center that is near 24N58W. The surface continues from the low
pressure center to 20N62W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 450 nm of the center in
the eastern semicircle.

A 1024 mb high pressure center is near 30N34W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 15N
northward from the 1013 mb low pressure center and surface
trough eastward.

The current weak frontal boundary extends along a 1013 mb low
pressure center that is offshore the northeast Florida coast
near 30.5N80W, S-SW to near Palm Beach, Florida. The low
pressure center is expected to move northward tonight. The
frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary and
dissipating. A nearly-stationary deep layer trough that is along
57W/58W will drift westward and weaken by Thursday morning. The
next cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast on
Wednesday night. The front will slide slowly SE, and reach from
near Bermuda through the NW Bahamas to W Cuba on Thursday, and
then drift southeast of the area through late Saturday. Fresh to
strong southwesterly winds will be ahead of the front in the
western Atlantic Ocean, to the N of 28N.

$$
mt/ss
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