[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Dec 15 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Developing Gale: A cold front will move into the
NW Gulf tonight and cross the basin Wed through Thursday. Strong
to near gale force northerly winds will follow the front with the
strongest wind increasing to gale force off Veracruz Wed morning.
Gale force winds in the central and western Bay of Campeche will
diminish by early Wed evening. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the west coast of Africa
near 09N14W and continues to 06N20W. The ITCZ begins near 06N20W
and continues to 03N37W to the coast of N Brazil near 00N50W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is from 03N-12N E of 20W, and
from 0N to 14N between 30W and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh return flow is over the western half of the gulf
ahead of the next cold front to come off the coast of Texas
tonight. The front will cross the basin through Wed night into
Thu morning. Strong to near gale force northerly winds will
follow the front with the strongest wind increasing to gale force
off Veracruz Wed morning. Gale force winds in the central and
western Bay of Campeche will diminish during the early night hours.
However, fresh to strong winds behind the front and building seas
will diminish through Fri. A second front is forecast to move
into the northwest Gulf by Sat night and reach the eastern basin
by Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Weakening high pressure north of the area is supporting modest
winds and seas across the basin while a middle level ridge sustain
fair weather conditions. By Wed night through Thu morning, high
pressure will begin to re-strengthen to the north, and tradewinds
offshore of Colombia will begin to pulse to strong each night
through Sat night. A weakening cold front will move slowly SE
across the Yucatan Channel and NW Caribbean Thu night through Fri
before dissipating. Strong high pressure north of the front will
produce fresh to strong NE tradewinds across much of the area
through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extending from 31N64W to 27N73W will move across the
Atlantic waters near the Bahamas through Wed. By Wed night, the
cold front is expected to dissipate. Meanwhile, a deep layer
trough will remain nearly stationary along about 57W-58W through
today before drifting westward and weaken by Thu morning. The next
cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast by Wed, then
slide slowly SE and reach from near Bermuda through the NW
Bahamas to W Cuba Thu, then drift southeast of the area through
late Sat. Fresh to strong southwesterly winds will be ahead of the
front in the western Atlantic N of 28N.

$$
Ramos
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