[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151723
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Dec 15 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Developing Gale:  A cold front will move into the
NW Gulf early tonight and cross the basin Wed through Thursday.
Behind the front, brief gales are expected offshore of Veracruz
on Wednesday afternoon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the west coast of Africa
near 09N13W and continues to 06N16W. The ITCZ begins near
06N16W and continues to 04N30W to 04N40W to the coast of N Brazil
near 00N50W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from
02N-09N between Africa and 23W, and from 01N-09N between 00W-45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC, a 1012 mb low is over the NW Gulf of Mexico near
28N97W. A forming warm front is along the Texas coast from 29N93W
to the surface low. Radar imagery shows scattered showers within
90 nm of the front. Elsewhere, a quasi-stationary front is over
S Florida and the SE Gulf of Mexico from Fort Pierce Florida to
to Port Charlotte Florida to the SE Gulf near 24N88W. A
prefrontal trough is over S Florida from Homestead Florida to the
SE Gulf near 23N87W. Broken low clouds are south of the trough.
Mainly gentle winds prevail across the remainder of the basin.
Seas in the Bay of Campeche and far SW Gulf are still 7-10 ft in
north swell and are expected to subside to 6-8 ft today.

A cold front will move into the NW Gulf tonight and cross the
basin through Thu, and will bring brief gales offshore Veracruz
Wed. Winds and seas will diminish through Fri as high pressure
builds across the northern Gulf in the wake of this front.
Another front will move into the northwest Gulf by Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A mid to upper level ridge covers the western two-thirds of the
Caribbean, leading to subsidence, dry air and mainly fair weather
across the entire basin. Weakening high pressure north of the
area is supporting gentle to moderate trade winds across the
basin. Recent ASCAT data showed fresh trades confined to the
south-central Caribbean, south of the 14N between 70W-78W. Seas
of 2-4 ft prevail over the eastern and NW Caribbean, while 4-7 ft
seas cover the area from the central to the SW basin.

By Wed, high pressure will begin to re-strengthen to the north,
and tradewinds offshore of Colombia will begin to pulse to strong
each night through Sat night. A weakening cold front will move
slowly SE across the Yucatan Channel and NW Caribbean Thu night
through Fri before dissipating. Strong high pressure north of the
front will produce fresh to strong NE tradewinds across much of
the area Fri and Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N68W to Fort Pierce Florida.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the front. Fresh winds are
noted on both sides of the front north of 28N, with strong
northerly winds beginning to cross 31N. A 1014 mb low is over the
central Atlantic near 22N59W. A surface trough extends from
28N55W to the low center to 18N62W. Scattered moderate convection
is east of the trough from 20N-28N between 49W-55W mostly due to
upper level diffluence. A 1026 mb high is centered over the E
Atlantic near 31N35W producing fair weather.

The W Atlantic cold front will sweep eastward across the waters
north of 27N through Wed. Meanwhile, a deep layer trough will
remain nearly stationary along about 57W-58W through Tue before
drifting westward and weakening tonight through Thu. The next
cold front will move into the NW waters Wed night then slide
slowly SE and reach from near Bermuda through the NW Bahamas to W
Cuba Fri morning, then drift southeast of the area through late
Sat. Fresh to strong southwesterly winds will be ahead of the
front in the western Atlantic.

$$
MRF/CTM
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