[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Dec 15 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0850 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Developing Gale: Northerly gales behind the current
cold front across the Gulf ended this evening, with winds
diminishing considerably, and seas slowly subsiding. Another cold
front will move into the NW Gulf early tonight and cross the
basin Wed through Thursday. Behind the front, brief gales are
expected offshore of Veracruz on Wednesday afternoon. Please read
the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the west coast of Africa
near 07.5N13W and continues to 05N20W. The ITCZ begins near
05N20W and continues to 04N35W to the coast of N Brazil near
00N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from
02N-09N between Africa and 23W, and from 02N-09N between 24W-
47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from near Venice, Florida to 25N84W. From
there, a stationary front continues to 19N93W to the coast of
Mexico near 18.5N93.5W. Widely scattered showers are seen over the
eastern Bay of Campeche between the front and Progreso, Mexico.
Winds has diminished considerably in the past several hours behind
the front, with N to NE winds around 15 kt to the northwest of
the front across the Bay of Campeche, and NE winds 15 kt across
the NE Gulf north of 28.5N. Mainly gentle winds prevail across the
remainder of the basin. Seas in the Bay of Campeche and far SW
Gulf are still 7-10 ft in north swell and are expected to subside
to 6-8 ft by sunrise this morning.

Winds and seas will diminish this morning as the front stalls
and starts to dissipate from SW Florida to the eastern Bay of
Campeche. Another cold front will move into the NW Gulf early
tonight and cross the basin Wed through Thu. Brief northerly gales
are expected offshore of Veracruz Wed afternoon. Winds and seas
will then diminish through Fri as high pressure builds across the
northern Gulf in the wake of this front. The next cold front will
move into the northwest Gulf by Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A mid to upper level ridge covers the western two-thirds of the
Caribbean, leading to subsidence, dry air and mainly fair weather
across the entire basin. Weakening high pressure north of the
area is supporting gentle to moderate trade winds across the
basin. Overnight ASCAT data showed fresh trades confined to the
south-central Caribbean, south of the 14N between 70W-78W. Seas
of 2-4 ft prevail over the eastern and NW Caribbean, while 4-7 ft
seas cover the area from the central to the SW basin.

High pressure north of the area will begin to re-strengthen by
Wed, and trade winds offshore of Colombia will begin to pulse to
strong each night, and then to near gale force Fri and Sat
nights. A weakening cold front will move slowly SE across the
Yucatan Channel and western Cuba Thu night through Fri before
dissipating. Strong high pressure north of the front will produce
fresh to strong NE trade winds across much of the area Fri and
Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N73W to just south of New Smyrna
Beach, Florida to near Venice, Florida. Widely scattered showers
are along the front. Fresh winds are noted on both sides of the
front north of 28N, with strong northerly winds beginning to cross
31N. A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high near 32N39W to
32N55W to a 1018 mb high near 28N66W to the central Bahamas.
Gentle anticyclonic winds are within 180 nm either side of the
ridge axis. To the south of the ridge, a 1012 mb low is near
23N58W, directing below a deep layered upper level cyclone. Fresh
E to SE winds are on the north and east sides of the low and are
producing scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms from
18N-26N between 50W- 57W. A surface trough oriented SSW- NNE
extends through the low from 18N to 27N. Upper-level diffluence to
the east of the upper low is enhancing this convection. In the NE
Atlantic, fresh NE winds extend from the Azores southwestward to
17N and east of 27W.

The cold front off NE Florida will sweep eastward across the
waters north of 27N through Wed. Meanwhile, the deep layer trough
will remain nearly stationary along 57/58W today before drifting
westward and weakening tonight through Thu. The next cold front
will move into the waters east of northern Florida Wed night then
slide slowly SE and reach from near Bermuda through the NW Bahamas
to W Cuba Fri morning, then drift southeast of the area through
late Sat. Behind the front, expect fresh N winds across the
western Atlantic.

$$
Stripling
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