[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070513
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Dec 7 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0450 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A 1012 mb low is located in the
central Gulf near 24N89W with a stationary front extending
eastward from the low to the SW Florida coast. A stationary
front also extends southward from the low to the coast of Mexico
to the east of Villahermosa. This system is leading to N to NW
gale force winds offshore Veracruz with seas 10 to 13 ft. These
conditions will continue through early Monday morning with
conditions improving across the Gulf Tue and Tues night. Please
read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.html for more details.

Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off the
U.S. East Coast by Monday. As the front pushes eastward
across the Atlantic, S to SW gale-force winds will develop ahead
of the front N of 29N and E of 70W late Monday through Tue. By
Tue, the front will stretch from Bermuda through the SE Bahamas
and into eastern Cuba. Westerly gales will develop behind the
front over the same area Tue into Tue night. Seas will build to 10
to 15 ft. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ text/MIAHSFAT2.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near
11N15W to 08N17W. The ITCZ continues from 08N17W to 05N32W to
the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 04N-07N between 17W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section for more information on the
Gale Warning in the SW Gulf.

Scattered moderate convection is along the stationary front in
the eastern Gulf from 23N-26N between 82W-90W. A cold front extends
across the north-central Gulf from the Florida Panhandle near
30N86W to 26N90W. Showers are noted across the NE Gulf from 26N-
30N between 83W-90W. Behind the cold front, moderate to fresh NW
winds are noted. Moderate to fresh winds are also on either side
of the stationary front in the eastern Gulf. In the western Gulf,
fresh to near-gale force NW winds are noted with gale force winds
off the coast of Veracruz. Seas range 3 to 6 ft across most of the
basin, with seas 9 to 12 ft in the SW Gulf.

The low in the central Gulf will move quickly NE and out of the
NE Gulf late tonight, dragging a reinforcing cold front through
the eastern Gulf. This cold front will exit the SE Gulf by Mon
afternoon. Winds and seas will diminish Tue as high pressure
builds over the northern Gulf. Looking ahead, southerly return
flow will increase over the NW Gulf by Thu ahead of the next
cold front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered thunderstorms are off the coast of Cuba, N of 21N
between 81W-85W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are observed
in the Yucatan Passage in addition to moderate to fresh trades
north of Colombia and Venezuela. Light to gentle winds are noted
elsewhere. Seas range 2 to 5 ft.

Fresh trade winds may pulse to locally strong off Colombia
tonight, then diminish quickly as high pressure north of the
area weakens and shifts east ahead of an approaching cold front.
The front will reach the Yucatan Channel Mon, extend from
eastern Cuba to Honduras Tue, and stall from Hispaniola to
Nicaragua into late week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section for more information on the
gale warning ahead of a cold front on Tuesday.

At 07/0300 UTC, a warm front extends off the coast of Florida
and north of the Bahamas from 27N80W to 26N73W. Scattered
showers are noted near the front. Light to gentle southerly
winds are south of the front. Farther east, a cold front extends
southward across the central Atlantic from 31N56W to north of
the Windward Passage near 21N73W. A trough is analyzed east of
the front from 31N53W to 24N50W. No significant convection is
associated with this trough. To the south, another trough lingers
across the central Atlantic from 20N46W to 12N46W. A wide area of
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are east of this
trough from 11N to 28N between 32W to 46W. Surface ridging extends
across the rest of the basin anchored by a 1033 mb high near the
Azores. Moderate to fresh easterly and SE winds are noted in the
eastern and central Atlantic. In the western Atlantic, seas range
from 3 to 6 ft. In the central Atlantic, seas range from 6 to 11
ft.

The warm front will weaken overnight and continue to lift northward,
as a second cold front moves off the SE U.S. coast Mon. By Tue,
the front will stretch from Bermuda through the SE Bahamas and
into eastern Cuba. Ahead of the front, gale force S winds are
likely to develop N of 29N and E of 70W from Mon night through
Tue. Westerly gales will develop behind the front over the same
area Tue into Tue night.

$$
AReinhart
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