[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062258
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Dec 6 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2240 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A developing low pressure system
located over the SW Gulf near 22N93W will move quickly NE and
out of the NE Gulf late tonight, dragging a reinforcing cold
front through the eastern Gulf. This cold front will exit the SE
Gulf by Mon afternoon. The most recent scatterometer pass shows
near gale force winds to the SW of the low center. Winds will
further increase to gale force offshore Veracruz tonight. Fresh
to strong northerly winds and seas of 8-12 ft will dominate most
of the SW Gulf tonight into Mon morning. Then, winds and seas
will diminish across the Gulf waters Tue and Tue night as high
pressure builds over the northern Gulf. Please read the latest
NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website https://www.nhc.noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.html for more
details.

Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off the
east coast of the U.S. by Monday. As the front pushes eastward
across the Atlantic, SW gale-force winds will develop ahead of
the front late Monday through Tue. The front will reach from
31N71W to the Straits of Florida by Mon morning, and from 31N68W
to central Cuba on Mon night. By Tue, the front will extend from
near Bermuda through the SE Bahamas and into eastern Cuba. These
gale-force winds will affect mainly the waters N of 28N and
within about 120 nm ahead of the front. Seas are expected to
build to 14-17 ft on Tue. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ text/MIAHSFAT2.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Sierra Leone near 07N12W to
05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to 03N40W to the coast of
Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-
07N between 20W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1800 UTC, a 1012 mb low pressure is analyzed over the SW
Gulf near 22N93W. A cold front extends from the low center to the
central Bay of Campeche. Please, refer to the Special Features
section for more details about this low center and the Gale
Warning that is already in effect for the SW Gulf waters.

A stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida across the
waters N of the Yucatan Peninsula to the aforementioned low pressure
located in the SW Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
noted in association with the frontal boundary. Abundant cloudiness,
with embedded showers, dominates most of the Gulf while thick low
clouds are banked up against the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico.
The stationary front will drift northward and dissipate as cold
air, in the wake of the front, spreads over the Gulf region.
Looking ahead, southerly return flow will increase over the NW
Gulf by Thu ahead of the next cold front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is noted across
the Caribbean Sea, with some convective activity over the Yucatan
Channel and western Cuba due to the proximity of a stationary
front. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are noted across the basin
with moderate to fresh winds near the coast of Colombia. Little
change is expected in this weather pattern tonight. A cold front
moving across the Gulf of Mexico will reach the Yucatan Channel
Mon, extend from eastern Cuba to Honduras Tue, and stall from
Hispaniola to Nicaragua into late week. Fresh to strong northerly
winds are expected behind the front over the western Caribbean
and in the Gulf of Honduras Mon night and Tue, with seas building
to 6-7 ft.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N61W to
the northern Bahamas, then continues as a stationary front across
the Straits of Florida. Isolated showers are noted along the
front over the Atlantic while convection is on increase across
the Straits of Florida and south Florida. This front will weaken
overnight and begin to lift northward, ahead of a second cold
front that will move off the SE U.S. coast Mon. By Tue, this cold
front will stretch from near Bermuda through the SE Bahamas and
into eastern Cuba. Ahead of the front, gale force SW winds are
expected. Please, refer to the Special Features section for more
details.

Farther E, a weak low pressure is near 25N52W. A well defined
swirl of low clouds is related to the low. High pressure of 1032
mb located just W of the Azores extends a ridge across the
remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. Moderate to fresh
trades are seen per scatterometer data along the southern
periphery of the ridge.

A good amount of cloudiness with some shower and thunderstorm
activity remains over the central Atlantic ahead of an upper-
level trough. This convective activity is covering the waters
from 14N-23N between 40W-45W.

$$
GR
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