[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061741
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Dec 6 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A 1013 mb surface low is centered
near 22N93W, with surface trough extending from 27N93W to the low
to 19N92W. Winds are expected to increase as the low pressure
deepens today. Gale force winds will develop by Sun evening
and continue through Mon morning. Seas may reach as high as 12 ft.
Winds and seas are expected to diminish through Mon as low rapidly
lifts out to the east, and high pressure builds over the Gulf
waters. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.
gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.html for more details.

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off
the east coast of the U.S. by Monday. As the front pushes
eastward across the Atlantic, SW gale-force winds will develop
ahead of the front by late Monday night/early Tuesday morning,
N of 29N between 65W and 67W. Seas are expected to build to 14
ft. These gale-force winds will continue through Tuesday evening.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
text/MIAHSFAT2.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Sierra Leone near 07N12W to
05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to 03N40W to the coast of
Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-07N
between 21W-30W. Isolated moderate convection is from 00N-13N
between 30W-38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect for the SW Gulf waters.

A stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida near
25N80W to 22N89W to the western Yucatan Peninsula near 19N91W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 22N-25N between 82W-88W.
A 1013 mb surface low is centered near 22N93W, with surface
trough extending from 27N93W to the low to 19N92W. Isolated
moderate convection is from 22N-27N between 90W-95W.

The Gulf of Mexico low will move rapidly NE and exit the NE Gulf
early Mon, dragging a reinforcing cold front through the eastern
Gulf. This front will exit the Gulf Mon night. Winds and seas
will diminish Tue and Wed as high pressure builds over the
northern Gulf. Looking ahead, southerly return flow will increase
over the NW Gulf by Thu ahead of the next cold front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers are noted in the NW Caribbean. Elsewhere,
scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico. Moderate to fresh winds are in the
central Caribbean with occasional strong trades pulsing north of
Colombia. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas range 3
to 6 ft with upwards of 7 ft in the central Caribbean.

Fresh trade winds will pulse off Colombia through tonight, then
diminish as high pressure north of the area weakens and shifts
east ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will reach
the Yucatan Channel Mon, extend from central Cuba to the Gulf
of Honduras Tue, and stall from Haiti to northeast Nicaragua
into late week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N63W to
the N Bahamas near 26N78W. A stationary front continues to the
Straits of Florida near 25N80W. Isolated moderate convection is
E of the front N of 25N between 55W-63W. A 1015 mb low is
centered near 26N52W. A surface trough extends from 20N47W to
13N49W. Scattered moderate convection is E of the trough from
15N-24N between 41W-47W. A 1034 mb high is centered over the E
Atlantic near 38N32W.

The W Atlantic cold front will stall and weaken into tonight.
The front will then lift north Mon as a warm front, ahead
of a second cold front that will move off the SE U.S. coast Mon
night. By Tue, this cold front will stretch from Bermuda through
the central Bahamas and into central Cuba. Ahead of the front,
gale force southerly winds are possible N of 28N and E of 65W
from late Mon night through Tue.

$$
Formosa
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