[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061040
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Dec 6 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A 1013 mb surface low is centered
near 22N95W, with surface trough extending from 27N96W to the low
to 18N93W. These features are ahead of a mid/upper low moving
into the southern Plains. Winds are expected to increase in that
area as the low pressure deepens through Sun. Gale force winds
will develop by Sun evening and continue through Mon morning. Seas
may reach as high as 12 ft in that region. Winds and seas are
expect to diminish through Mon as low rapidly lifts out to the
east, and high pressure builds over the Gulf waters. Please read
the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.html
for more details.

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off
the east coast of the U.S. by Monday. As the front pushes eastward
across the Atlantic, SW gale-force winds will develop ahead of the
front by late Monday night/early Tuesday morning, N of 29N between
65W and 67W. Seas are expected to build to 14 ft. These gale-
force winds will continue through Tuesday evening. Please read the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.html for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Sierra Leone near 07N12W to
04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to the coast of Brazil
near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is along and north of
the ITCZ from 02N to 10N between 27W to 37W. A surface trough
extends north of the ITCZ from 11N48W to 07N48W. Scattered showers
are noted along and east of the trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect for the SW Gulf waters.

A 1013 mb surface low is centered near 22N95W, with surface
trough extending from 27N96W to the low to 18N93W. Scattered
moderate convection prevails with the low center. A stationary
front stretches from the southwest Florida coast near 26N81W to
the northwest Yucatan near 21N90W. Scattered showers are noted
within 100 nm of the front north of the Yucatan Channel. Moderate
to fresh winds are noted in the central and NW Gulf. Gentle winds
are noted elsewhere. Seas range 3 to 6 ft with upwards of 8 ft in
the southern Bay of Campeche.

The stationary front and the low/trough in the Bay of Campeche
will support strong to near gale force winds over the far western
Gulf through Sun, briefly reaching gale force tonight off
Veracruz. The low pressure will move rapidly toward the Carolina
coast Sun through Mon, dragging a reinforcing front across the
eastern Gulf Mon into Tue. Winds and seas diminish through mid
week as the cold front shifts southeast of the area and high
pressure builds over the northern Gulf. Looking ahead, southerly
return flow will increase over the northwest Gulf by Thu ahead of
the next cold front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers are noted in the NW Caribbean. Moderate to
fresh winds are in the central Caribbean with occasional strong
trades pulsing north of Colombia,mainly at nighttime. Light to
gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas range 3 to 6 ft with upwards
of 7 ft in the central Caribbean.

Fresh trade winds will pulse off Colombia today, then diminish as
high pressure north of the area weakens and shifts east ahead of
an approaching cold front. The front will reach the Yucatan
Channel Mon, extend from western Cuba to eastern Honduras Tue, and
stall from the Windward Passage to northeast Nicaragua through
mid week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N67W to
26N72W to the coast of South Florida near 26N80W. Gentle to
moderate northerly winds are noted behind the front, while
moderate to fresh S to SW winds are ahead of the front N of 25N
between 63W to 71W. To the east, a surface trough is noted ahead
of the front from 28N67W to 20N72W. Scattered showers are ahead
of the trough from 25N to 31W between 57W to 66W. A 1015 mb
surface low is analyzed near 26N52W, with surface trough extending
from 31N52W to the low to 21N50W. Another trough is noted south of
these features from 20N49W to 11N50W. Scattered moderate
convection prevails from 16N-27N between 43W and 47W. Surface
ridge prevails across the east Atlantic, anchored by a 1033 mb
high centered north of the area. Moderate to fresh easterly winds
are noted across the central and eastern Atlantic. Seas range 3
to 6 ft in the western Atlantic and 5 to 10 ft in the central
Atlantic.

The west Atlantic cold front will start to stall and weaken from
Bermuda to the Upper Florida Keys by today. The front will lift
northward through tonight ahead of a stronger cold moving off the
northeast Florida coast through early Mon. This front will reach
from Bermuda to western Cuba Tue, and from 25N65W to the Windward
Passage through mid week. Winds to gale force are possible ahead
of the front N of 29N and E of 65W Mon night into Tue.

$$
ERA
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