[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060558
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Dec 6 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0440 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A surface trough stretches off the
South Texas coast to near Ciudad del Carmen in the southern
Bay of Campeche. A 1013 mb low is along the trough near 22N95W,
ahead of a mid/upper low moving into the southern Plains.Winds
are expected to increase in that area as the low pressure deepens
through Sun. Gale force winds will develop by Sun evening and
continue through Mon morning. Seas may reach as high as 13 ft in
that region. Winds and seas are expect to diminish through Mon
as low rapidly lifts out to the east, and high pressure builds
over the northern Gulf.  Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.html for more details.

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off
the east coast of the U.S. by Monday. As the front pushes eastward
across the Atlantic, SW gale-force winds will develop ahead of the
front by late Monday night/early Tuesday morning, N of 29N between
65W and 67W. Seas are expected to build to 15 ft. These gale-
force winds will continue through Tuesday evening. Please read
the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Sierra Leone near 07N13W to
05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 04N21W to the coast of
Brazil near 02N51W. Scattered moderate convection is along and
north of the ITCZ from 02N to 09N between 16W to 38W. A trough
extends north of the ITCZ from 11N46W to 04N48W. Scattered
moderate convection is near and east of the trough from 06N to
15N between 36W to 51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

At 06/0300 UTC, A stationary front stretches from the southwest
Florida coast near 26N81W to the northwest Yucatan near 21N90W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted within
100 nm of the front north of the Yucatan and the Yucatan Passage.
The trough in the western Gulf of Mexico stretches from 28N96W to
18N93W. A 1013 mb low is near 22N96W. Thunderstorms are near the
trough and across portions of the western Gulf from 21N to 27N
between 91W to 97W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted in the central
and NW Gulf. Gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas range 3 to 6
ft with upwards of 8 ft in the southern Bay of Campeche.

The stationary front and the low/trough in the Bay of Campeche
will support strong to near gale force winds over the far western
Gulf through Sun, briefly reaching gale force late Sun off Veracruz.
The low pressure will move rapidly toward the Carolina coast Sun
through Mon, dragging a reinforcing front across the eastern Gulf
Mon into Tue. Winds and seas diminish through mid week as the cold
front shifts southeast of the area and high pressure builds over
the northern Gulf. Looking ahead, southerly return flow will increase
over the northwest Gulf by Thu ahead of the next cold front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers are noted in the NW Caribbean. Moderate to
fresh winds are in the central Caribbean with occasional strong
trades pulsing north of Colombia. Light to gentle winds are noted
elsewhere. Seas range 3 to 6 ft with upwards of 7 ft in the central
Caribbean.

Fresh to occasionally strong trade winds will pulse off Colombia
through Sun, then diminish as high pressure north of the area
weakens and shifts east ahead of an approaching cold front. The
front will reach the Yucatan Channel Mon, extend from western
Cuba to eastern Honduras Tue, and stall from the Windward Passage
to northeast Nicaragua through mid week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

At 03/0600 UTC, a cold front extends across the western Atlantic
from 31N69W to 27N75W to the coast of South Florida near 26N80W.
Gentle to moderate northerly winds are noted behind the front
with moderate to fresh S to SW winds are ahead of the front, N
of 26N between 63W to 71W. A pre-frontal trough is noted ahead
of the front from 29N70W to the Windward Passage near 20N74W.
Scattered moderate convection is ahead of the front from 25N to
31W between 56W to 68W. A trough is in the central Atlantic from
31N52W to 21N50W with a 1016 mb low near 26N52W. Another trough
is farther south, analyzed from 20N48W to 13N49W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is east of these troughs
from 16N to 28N between 42W to 50W. Moderate to fresh easterly
winds are noted across the central and eastern Atlantic. Seas
range 3 to 6 ft in the western Atlantic and 5 to 10 ft in the
central Atlantic.

The cold front will start to stall and weaken from Bermuda to
the Upper Florida Keys by early Sun. The front will lift
northward through late Sun ahead of a stronger cold moving off
the northeast Florida coast late Sun night. The second front
will reach from Bermuda to western Cuba Tue, and from 25N65W to
the Windward Passage through mid week. Winds to gale force are
possible ahead of the front N of 30N and E of 70W Mon night into
Tue.

$$
AKR
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