[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071034
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Dec 7 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A 1010 mb low is located near 25N87W
with a stationary front extending eastward from the low to the SW
Florida coast. A cold front also extends southward from the low
to the coast of Mexico to the east of Villahermosa. This system is
leading to N to NW gale force winds offshore Veracruz with seas
10 to 13 ft. These conditions will continue through early today.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.html for more details.

Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off the
U.S. East Coast today. As the front pushes eastward across the
Atlantic, gale force winds are expected to develop on both sides
of the front and mainly N of 28N starting tonight. These
conditions will follow the front as it moves east through Tue
night. Seas will build to 10 to 15 ft. Please read the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ text/MIAHSFAT2.html for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near
11N15W to 07N19W. The ITCZ continues from 07N19W to the coast of
Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered showers are noted along and north of
the ITCZ between 28W-37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section for more information on the
Gale Warning in the SW Gulf.

Scattered moderate convection is along the stationary front in
the eastern Gulf from 22N-26N and east of 88W. To the northeast, a
1010 mb low is centered near 29N86W, with a cold front extending
from the low to 24N90W. Scattered showers are noted across the NE
Gulf in the vicinity of these features. Scatterometer data depicts
fresh to strong winds across the most of the basin. In the
western Gulf, fresh to near-gale force NW winds are noted with
gale force winds off the coast of Veracruz. Seas range 3 to 6 ft
across most of the basin, with seas 9 to 12 ft in the SW Gulf.

Both lows and fronts will merge and move east across the Atlantic
waters through the forecast period. Winds and seas will diminish
Tue as high pressure builds over the northern Gulf. Looking ahead,
southerly return flow will increase over the NW Gulf by Thu ahead
of the next cold front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers are off the coast of Cuba, N of 21N between
83W-85W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are observed in the
Yucatan Passage. Moderate trades prevail across the remainder of
the basin. Seas range between 2 to 5 ft.

Fresh trade winds will pulse to strong at night
across the SW Caribbean through the forecast period. High
pressure north of the area will weaken and shift east ahead of
an approaching cold front. The front will reach the Yucatan
Channel today, extend from eastern Cuba to Honduras Tue, and
stall from Hispaniola to Nicaragua into late week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section for more information on the
gale warning in effect for the west-central Atlantic.

A 1010 mb low is centered near 27N80W, with warm front extending
from the low to 27N72W. To the east, a cold front extends from
31N57W to 23N72W. A surface trough extends from 30N51W to 21N52W
with scattered showers. Another trough is analyzed from 21N47W to
15N46W. A surface trough is analyzed from 18N38W to 13N37W. A
wide area of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms is along
and east of this trough mainly N of 10N between 33W-45W. Surface
ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. Moderate to
fresh easterly and SE winds are noted in the eastern and central
Atlantic. In the western Atlantic, seas range from 3 to 6 ft. In
the central Atlantic, seas range from 6 to 11 ft.

The frontal boundary across the west Atlantic will merge with the
next front that will move off the SE U.S. coast today. By Tue,
the front will stretch from Bermuda through the SE Bahamas and
into eastern Cuba. Gale force winds are likely to develop on
either sides of the front mainly N of 28N through early Wed.

$$
ERA
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