[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030557
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Dec 03 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front has moved off the Texas
coast this evening. The front is forecast to reach the central Gulf
Thu night, the eastern Gulf Fri night, then move SE of the area by
late Sat. Gale conditions will briefly develop in the far SW Gulf
behind the advancing front Thu afternoon through evening. Then, a
coastal trough will develop from the central Bay of Campeche to
offshore of Brownsville, Texas on Sat. Strong N winds are expected
to develop W of the trough Sat night through Sun, with gale
conditions possible offshore of the Veracruz, Mexico area. Seas are
forecast to build to 11 or 12 ft with the strongest winds. Please,
read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.html for more details.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 08N19W. The ITCZ continues from 08N19W, to
07N30W. A surface trough is along 31W/32W from 02N to 10N.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 200 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 22W and 29W.
Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 12N southward from 60W
eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level SW wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front is adjacent to the Texas Gulf coast. A stationary
front is in the coastal plains and coastal waters of Louisiana.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is
within 60 nm to 120 nm of the coast between 88W and 92W, in the
coastal waters of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere from 22N
northward from 85W westward.

The current cold front is moving off the Texas coast this
evening. Strong S winds will prevail tonight N of 26N, to the
east of the cold front. Strong NW winds will develop quickly,
behind the cold front, in the western Gulf of Mexico, and they
will prevail through Friday. The cold front will progress to
Louisiana to the Bay of Campeche on Thursday, then the Florida
Panhandle to Yucatan Peninsula on Friday, and finally move SE of
the area on Saturday. A coastal trough will develop, from the
central Bay of Campeche to offshore of Brownsville, Texas on
Saturday. Strong N winds are expected to develop W of the
trough, from Saturday night through Sunday, with gale-force
winds possible offshore of the Veracruz, Mexico area.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean
Sea.

A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean, to 23N73W just
to the east of the Bahamas. The front becomes stationary at
23N73W, and it continues across SE Cuba, to 18N85W in the
Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is between the stationary front and the monsoon
trough.

A cold front passes through SE Cuba to 19N79W. The front becomes
stationary, from 19N79W, and curving southwestward to the
central coast of Honduras. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds and possible rainshowers are to the north and northwest of
the frontal boundary, and within 210 nm to the south and
southeast of the frontal boundary.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/11N from 73W in N Colombia,
beyond Costa Rica. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is between the monsoon trough and the stationary
front, from 73W westward to the coast of Nicaragua.

The current stationary front, from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras, will weaken gradually through Thursday night, and then
dissipate late on Friday. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas
will prevail NW of this front, through Friday. Fresh to strong
winds also will occur into Friday, in the south central
Caribbean Sea, as high pressure moves E into the western Atlantic
Ocean. It is possible that another cold front may approach the
Yucatan Channel late on Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N, about 120 nm to the east of
Bermuda, to 26N66W, to 23N73W just to the east of the Bahamas.
The front becomes stationary at 23N73W, across SE Cuba, to
18N85W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and possible
rainshowers, are within 180 nm to the east and southeast of the
frontal boundary, and within 135 nm to the west and northwest of
the frontal boundary. A second cold front is about 330 nm to the
NW of the first frontal boundary, from 28N76W northeastward.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 15N northward between 40W and 60W. A 1016 mb low pressure
center is near 31N60W. One surface trough is along 28N53W 22N52W
16N51W. A second surface trough is along 26N44W 19N47W.
Precipitation: numerous strong is from 21N to 26N between 42W
and 46W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 16N to 28N between
40W and 53W.

A 1009 mb low pressure center is near 31N22W. A 1041 mb high
pressure center is near 46N37W. Gale-force winds are between the
1009 mb low pressure center and the 1041 mb high center.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 240 nm of the center in the northern semicircle.

The current slowly-moving cold front stretches from Bermuda to
the Turks and Caicos to eastern Cuba. This front will weaken and
stall through Thursday night, and then dissipate on Friday.
Fresh winds will prevail along and just to the west of this
boundary into Thursday. Another cold front will move off the
coast of NE Florida on Saturday morning.

$$
mt/sk
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