[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022323
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Dec 2 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: the most recent scatterometer data
provided observations of strong SE winds over the NW Gulf. These
winds will weaken slightly and shift eastward as a cold front
moves off the coast of Texas this evening. The front is forecast
to reach the central Gulf Thu night, the eastern Gulf Fri night,
then move SE of the area by late Sat. Gale conditions will briefly
develop in the far SW Gulf behind the advancing front Thu afternoon
through evening. Then, a coastal trough will develop from the
central Bay of Campeche to offshore of Brownsville, Texas on Sat.
Strong N winds are expected to develop W of the trough Sat night
through Sun, with gale conditions possible offshore of the
Veracruz, Mexico area. Seas are forecast to build to 11 or 12 ft
with the strongest winds. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W to 08N16W. The ITCZ continues from 08N16W to 03N30W
to the coast of Brazil near 02N51W. Convection is currently
limited.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. Please, see
the Special Features Section above for details.

A ridge dominates the State of Florida and most of the Gulf region
anchored by a high pressure centered over the Southeast U.S. This
system is producing fresh to locally strong NE-E winds across
the eastern half of the Gulf, including the Straits of Florida.
Plenty of sunshine and dry weather conditions were observed
across South Florida today. In the western Gulf, a surface
trough is analyzed from 25N97W to near Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate
to fresh SE winds are on the E side of the trough while mainly
light westerly winds are on the W side of the trough axis.

An area of showers with embedded thunderstorms is over the NW
Gulf. A diffluent pattern aloft, ahead of a mid-upper level
trough is helping to induce this convective activity. Scattered
cold air stratocumulus clouds are noted over the eastern Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front lingers across the NW Caribbean and extends
from Camaguey/Las Tunas border in Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras.
A narrow band of cloudiness with some shower activity is related
to the frontal boundary. Fresh to strong NE winds are seen per
scatterometer data in the wake of the front, including the
Yucatan Channel. A surface trough is ahead of the front over the
central Caribbean and runs from 19N75W to near 11N76W. Latest
visible satellite imagery as well as the 925 mb streamlines
confirmed the presence of the trough axis. Fresh to locally
strong winds are also noted on either side of the trough per
latest satellite-derived wind data N of 14N between 73W-79W.
Fresh NE winds are blowing across the Windward Passage. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted on either side
of the trough covering mainly the waters from 14N-18N between
71W-77W, and from 10N-13N between 76W-80W.

The stationary front will gradually become more E to W aligned
and weaken through early Fri. Fresh to strong winds and rough
seas will prevail NW of this front. Winds will increase to fresh
to strong across the central Caribbean this evening through Thu
night as high pres over the SE CONUS moves E into the W Atlantic.
Looking ahead, another cold front may enter the Yucatan Channel
by late Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N65W and continues
SW to near 27N68W where it becomes stationary to Camaguey/Las
Tunas border in Cuba. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are
behind the front S of 27N. A band of mainly broken low clouds
with embedded showers is associated with the front, forecast to
drift SE through Fri then stall and dissipate. Fresh to locally
strong N to NE winds and high seas will prevail mainly S of 26N W
of the front through tonight. Looking ahead, another cold front
will move off the coast of northeast Florida Sat.

A weak low pressure of 1014 mb is located near 30N59W. Visible
satellite pictures show a well defined swirl of low clouds
associated with this low. Farther E, and area of showers and
thunderstorms is over the Central Atlantic, covering roughly the
area from 20N-28N between 40W-52W. This convective activity is
the result of a mid-upper level low spinning near 24N49W. At the
surface, a trough, reflection of this low, extends from 27N52W to
20N53W.

A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system remains centered
between the Madeira Islands and the Azores producing some shower
activity over the Madeira Islands. A surface trough crosses the
Canary Islands.

$$
GR
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