[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030900
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Dec 3 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front off the coast of Texas
this morning will spill southward into the Bay of Campeche later
today. Gales will quickly develop behind the front off the coast
of Veracruz, Mexico this afternoon and evening. Winds will
diminish to strong tonight, then remain fresh Fri and Sat. By Sun,
a coastal trough in the area may bring another round of gale-
force northernly winds offshore Veracruz and portions of the
western Bay of Campeche. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W to 08N19W. The ITCZ continues from 08N19W to 07N30W.
A surface trough is along 32w from 02N to 10N, moving slowly W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm N of the ITCZ
between 22W and 29W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features above for information for gales
developing offshore Veracruz, Mexico.

A cold front extends from near Port Arthur, Texas, to Tampico,
Mexico. Ahead of this front, strong S winds continue W of 90W and
N of 25N. Behind the front, strong N winds are developing offshore
the TX coast. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is
occurring in the NW Gulf N of 23N between 88W and the cold front,
including coastal waters of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana.

Elsewhere, generally moderate SE winds prevail with seas of 4 to 6
ft. Some 8 to 9 ft seas are occurring in the Florida Straits and
offshore the NW coast of Cuba.

Strong SE to S winds will prevail ahead of the cold front today
over the north-central Gulf, with strong NW winds behind the front
through Fri. Gales will develop later today off Veracruz, Mexico
and continue through the evening. The slow moving cold front will
stretch from Louisiana to the Bay of Campeche tonight, the Florida
Panhandle to Yucatan Peninsula Fri night, then exit the SE Gulf
Sat night. A coastal trough will develop near Mexican coast Sat,
inducing more strong N winds over the western Gulf and again
providing a potential for gale conditions offshore Veracruz Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The cold front in the NW Caribbean has stalled and is now located
from eastern Cuba through the Cayman Islands. Scattered moderate
convection is noted W of 80W S of the front, with isolated strong
thunderstorms off the coast of Nicaragua. Along and north of the
front, strong NE winds are ongoing with seas of 8 to 9 ft.

Scattered moderate convection is along the monsoon trough at 10N
from 73W to Costa Rica. A tight pressure gradient between lower
pressure along the N coast of Colombia and higher pressure N of
the Antilles is creating some strong NE to E winds off the coast
of Colombia. Elsewhere in the basin, generally moderate to fresh
trades prevail.

The stationary front in the NW Caribbean will weaken into tonight,
then dissipate Fri. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will
prevail NW of this front through tonight. Fresh to strong winds
will also occur through Fri across the south central Caribbean as
high pressure moves E into the western Atlantic. Looking ahead,
another cold front may approach the Yucatan Channel Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N61W to the Turks and Caicos Islands,
where it has stalled and continues into eastern Cuba. A secondary
front surging SE is noted from Bermuda to just E of the NW
Bahamas. No precipitation is noted in association with these two
weakening boundaries.

Unsettled weather remains over the central Atlantic, with a trio
of surface troughs inducing showers and thunderstorms. The
westernmost trough extends from 31N59W to 27N56W. To the east, a
trough is located from 29N53W to 18N52W. Finally, the easternmost
trough stretches from 28N45W to 19N44W. An area of strong
convection associated with these features is noted from 18N to 28N
between 40W and 51W.

In the eastern Atlantic, a weakening 1010 mb low pressure is
centered near 31N21N, or midway between the Azores and the Canary
Islands. Some gales are likely occurring N of the area, well away
from the center, closer to the Azores. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within about 180 nm of the center in the NE
semicircle. Winds associated with this low along with northerly
swell between the aforementioned troughs and this low are leading
to a broad area of 8 to 15 ft seas N of about 20N.

The western Atlantic cold front will stall tonight and dissipate
Fri. Strong S winds may develop off the SE U.S. coast Sat in
advance of the next cold front.

$$
KONARIK
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