[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020929
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Dec 2 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will move SE through the
western Gulf of Mexico tonight and early Thu, bringing strong N
winds and building seas in its wake. By Thu afternoon, gale force
winds will develop offshore Veracruz and portions of the western
Bay of Campeche. These winds will continue through Thu evening
before decreasing overnight Thu. Please read the latest NWS High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the northern coastal sections
of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from
07N17W to 06N27W to 05N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 05N to 10N between 20W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features Section above for details on gales
forecast Thu and Thu night in the far SW Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure centered NE of the area is dominating Gulf weather
early this morning, bringing generally dry conditions, except for
the far western Gulf, where scattered moderate convection has
developed. Along the Texas coast, strong SE winds have developed
in advance of a cold front over NW Texas. Seas of up to 8 ft are
occurring in the SE Gulf N of Cuba, although the swell
responsible for these waves is decaying.

Strong SE winds will prevail through tonight as a cold front
moves off the coast this evening. Gale conditions will develop in
the far SW Gulf Thu afternoon and night behind the front. The cold
front will move through the central Gulf Thu night and eastern
Gulf Fri night, then move SE of the area by late Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front is located from SE Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras. Scattered moderate convection along with fresh to strong
N winds and building seas are occurring N and W of this boundary,
northward to near the Yucatan Channel. Showers to the immediate
south of the front have diminished this morning, but scattered
moderate convection is occurring along the monsoon trough from 08N
to 12N W of 72W. Additionally, scattered showers and thunderstorms
remain just S of Hispaniola.

Moderate to fresh trades will continue across much of the basin
through tonight. A stationary front from eastern Cuba to Honduras
will weaken and dissipate by late Thu. Fresh to strong winds and
building seas will prevail NW of this front. Winds will increase
to fresh to strong across central portions this evening through
Thu night as high pres moves E into the W Atlc. Looking ahead,
another cold front may enter the Yucatan Channel by late Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening cold front passes from Bermuda across the Turks and
Caicos and into SE Cuba. Associated convection with this front has
diminished early this morning. Fresh to locally strong N winds are
still occurring behind the front N of 28N and W of 72W as well as
in the vicinity of the N coast of Cuba and the SE Bahamas.

A complex area of disturbed weather is located over the central
Atlantic, possessing 3 surface troughs. This troughs extend from
32N61W to 27N55W, from 32N52W to 24N48W, and from 23N51W to
18N55W. These troughs are aiding in a broad area of scattered
moderate convection from 18N to 31N between 41W and 52W. Also,
strong SE winds are occurring to the east of the trough that
extends from 32N52W to 24N48W.

A 1005 mb low pressure centered near 33N22W in the far eastern
Atlantic continues to produce near gale force winds between the
Madeira Islands and the Azores. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring mainly to the NE of the center. Please read the METEO-
FRANCE high seas forecast at http://www.gmdss.org/II.html for more
details.

The previously mentioned cold front in the western Atlantic will
drift SE and stall through late week. Fresh to locally strong N
winds building seas will prevail mainly W of 70W through tonight.
Looking ahead, another cold front will move off the coast of
northeast Florida Sat.

$$
KONARIK
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