[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Dec 02 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the northern coastal sections
of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from
07N17W, to 05N22W, 07N32W, and to 06N48W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 420 nm to the
north of the ITCZ between 20W and 40W.
Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 15N southward from 43W
eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level SW wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico.

As high pressure slides east, strong SE return flow will set up
Wed morning in the NW Gulf and continue through Wed night as a
cold front moves off the TX coast. This front will move into the
central Gulf Thu, bringing gale conditions to the extreme SW
Gulf offshore Veracruz, Mexico. The cold front will move into
the eastern Gulf Fri, and move SE of the Gulf by late Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean
Sea.

A cold front passes through SE Cuba to 19N79W. The front becomes
stationary, from 19N79W, and curving southwestward to the
central coast of Honduras. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds and possible rainshowers are to the north and nortwest of
the frontal boundary, and within 210 nm to the south and
southeast of the frontal boundary.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/11N from 73W in N Colombia,
beyond Costa Rica. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is to the south of the line that runs from the
central coast of southern Hispaniola to the NE coast of
Nicaragua, from 70W westward.

Moderate to fresh tradewinds will continue across much of the
basin nto Wed night. A cold front has stalled this evening from
eastern Cuba to the eastern Gulf of Honduras and will gradually
dissipate
through late Thu. Fresh to strong winds and building seas will
prevail NW of this front through Thu. Winds will increase to
fresh to strong across central portions late Wed into Thu night
as high pres behind the front shifts into the W Atlc. Looking
ahead, another cold front may enter the Yucatan Channel by late
Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N, about 180 nm to the west of
Bermuda, to 27N70W, to the Bahamas from 22N to 23N, cutting
across SE Cuba, to 19N79W. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds, and possible rainshowers, are within 300 nm to the east
and southeast of the cold front, and within 200 nm to the west
and northwest of the cold front.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 20N northward between 40W and 60W. One surface trough is
along 23N52W 19N55W. A second surface trough is along 34N51W
24N48W. A third surface trough is from 360 nm to 480 nm to the
west of the second surface trough. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 19N northward
between 40W and 53W. Rainshowers are possible also from 18N
northward between 53W and 66W.

A 1005 mb low pressure center is near 34N22W. Gale-force winds
are in the METEO-FRANCE area that is called ACORES.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 400 nm of the center
in the southern semicircle. The non-tropical low pressure center
is between the Madeira Islands and the Azores.  This system has
become less organized during the past 24 hours. Environmental
conditions are
expected to become less conducive for development, as the system
moves southwestward during the next day or two. Development into
a subtropical cyclone now is unlikely. Expect strong winds and
locally heavy rains in the Madeira Islands and the Azores,
through Wednesday. Please, read the METEO-FRANCE high seas
forecast, at the following webpage:
http://www.gmdss.org/II.html, for more details.

The current Atlantic Ocean cold front stretches from just E of
Bermuda to the Turks and Caicos islands to eastern Cuba. This
front will drift SE and stall through late week. Strong NW winds
and building seas will prevail behind the front, mainly N of 28N
and W of 70W tonight, with strong winds developing over waters
adjacent to Cuba and the SE Bahamas Wed into Thu. Looking ahead,
another cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida
Sat.

$$
mt/sk
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