[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012356
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Dec 1 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system is centered between
the Madeira Islands and the Azores. This system has become less
organized during the past 24 hours, and environmental conditions
are expected to become less conducive for development as the
system moves southwestward during the next day or two. Although
subtropical development is now unlikely, this system will continue
to produce strong winds and locally heavy rains in the Madeira
Islands and the Azores through Wednesday. Additional information
on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo
France. THEIR WEBSITE IS:
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR
12N16W TO 07N28W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N28W TO 05N140W TO THE
COAST OF N BRAZIL NEAR 03N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 03N-13N BETWEEN 12W AND 39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure is across the basin anchored by a 1026 mb
high over SE Louisiana. This is providing gentle to moderate E to
SE winds across the western half of the basin while a stronger
pressure gradient over the eastern half of the gulf supports
moderate to fresh N to NE winds with seas to 9 ft.

Strong SE return flow will set up Wed over the NW Gulf, ahead of
a cold front that will enter the Gulf early Wed night. By Thu
night, this front will reach from the mouth of the Mississippi
River to the central Bay of Campeche, with brief gale conditions
likely redeveloping off Veracruz Thu afternoon through evening.
The cold front will move SE of the Gulf late Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level divergent flow along with the eastern extension of the
East Pacific monsoon trough continue to support scattered showers
and tstms over the SW Caribbean, including central America. This
area of showers and tstms extends to the central Caribben over
Hispaniola adjacent waters.

A stationary front over the NW Caribbean extending from central
Cuba to the central Gulf of Honduras will gradually dissipate
through late Thu. Fresh to strong winds and building seas will
prevail NW of this front through Thu morning. Winds will increase
to fresh to strong across central portions late Wed through Thu as
high pres behind the front shifts into the W Atlc. Looking ahead,
another weaker front may enter the Yucatan Channel by late Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON LOW
PRESSURE IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC NW OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS.

A cold front stretches from 31N70W through the central Bahamas to
central Cuba near 22N77W. This front will reach from Bermuda to
the SE Bahamas and east central Cuba by Wed morning, then weaken
and drift SE before stalling across the SE waters late Thu through
Fri. Strong NW winds and building seas will prevail behind the
front, mainly N of 28N and W of 70W through this evening.

The remainder basin is under the influence of surface ridging,
except the north-central waters where a middle to upper level low
continue to support a 1012 mb low near 23N48W. A surface trough
extends from 31N49W to the low to 20N44W. Scattered showers and
tstms are in the vicinity of this elongated area of low pressure,
from 20N to 29N between 40W and 52W.

Looking ahead, another cold front will move off the coast of
northeast Florida Sat morning.

$$
Ramos
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