[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021744
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Dec 2 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will move SE through
the western Gulf of Mexico tonight and early Thu, bringing strong
N winds and building seas in its wake. By Thu afternoon,
northwest gale force winds will develop offshore Veracruz and
portions of the western Bay of Campeche. Seas will build 8 to 10
ft. These winds and seas will continue through Thu evening before
decreasing overnight Thu. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W to 08N16W. The ITCZ continues from 08N16W to 03N33W
to the coast of Brazil near 02N51W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 04N to 09N between 12W to 23W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along and north of the ITCZ from 04N to 12N
between 23W to 33W.


GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features Section above for details on the
gale warning from Thu to Thu night in the far SW Gulf of Mexico.

Surface ridging stretches across most of the Gulf anchored by
high pressure centered over the Southeast U.S. In the western
Gulf, a surface trough is analyzed from 25N97W to the coast of
Mexico near 18N95W. Scattered moderate convection is north and
east of the trough, in addition to being along the southeast
Texas coast, from 24N to 30N between 93W to 96W. Strong to near
gale force southeasterly winds are noted in the NW Gulf along
the southeast Texas coast. Moderate to fresh south to southeasterly
winds are noted from the South Texas coast southward into the Bay
of Campeche east of the trough. Moderate to fresh ENE winds are
noted in the eastern and central Gulf. Seas range 3 to 6 ft across
the basin with upwards of 7 ft near the middle Texas coast and
upwards of 8 ft near the Yucatan Passage.

Strong SE winds continue to develop over the NW Gulf in advance
of a cold front over Texas. These winds will prevail SE of the
front through tonight as the cold front moves off the coast this
evening. Gale conditions will develop in the far SW Gulf behind
the advancing front Thu afternoon and night behind the front.
The cold front will move through the central Gulf Thu night and
eastern Gulf Fri night, then move SE of the area by late Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front lingers across the NW Caribbean from eastern
Cuba near 20N77W to the Gulf of Honduras near 17N89W. A 1015 mb
low is also in the Gulf of Honduras near 17N88W. Scattered
showers are within 70 nm of the front. A pre-frontal trough is
noted from the Windward Passage to the SW Caribbean from 19N75W
to 11N83W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of
Hispaniola from 15N to 18N between 71W to 76W. Showers are
moving westward across the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico. The
monsoon trough stretches across the SW Caribbean from the coast
of Colombia near 10N76W to the coast of Panama near 09N82W with
a 1009 mb low near 10N78W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 09N to 14N between 77W to 84W. Fresh to
strong ENE winds are north of the stationary front. Moderate to
fresh ENE winds are noted in the central Caribbean and light to
gentle winds are in the eastern basin. Seas range 3 to 6 ft with
upwards of 9 ft in the NW Caribbean.

The stationary front will gradually become more E to W aligned
and weaken through late Thu. Fresh to strong winds and building
seas will prevail NW of this front. Winds will increase to fresh
to strong across central portions this evening through Thu night
as high pres moves E into the W Atlc. Looking ahead, another
cold front may enter the Yucatan Channel by late Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the area near  31N66W to the southern
Bahamas near 23N73W to the northeast Cuban coast near 21N76W.
Showers are noted within 60 nm of the front. Fresh NE winds are
north of the front. A pre-frontal trough is east of the front
from 25N68W to 20N66W with no significant convection associated
with the trough. A 1014 mb low is near 30N59W with a trough
along it from 32N61W to 27N56W. Moderate to fresh ESE winds are
NE of the low. Another trough is in the central Atlantic from
29N62W to 18N54W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is along and east of this trough from 20N to 29N
between 45W to 52W. A trough stretches across the Canary Islands
from 30N15W to 22N22W. Seas range 4 to 8 ft across the western
Atlantic with upwards of 10 ft near the northern portion of the
cold front. Upwards of 12 ft are near the low.

A 1007 mb low pressure centered near 32N22W in the far eastern
Atlantic is producing gale force winds between the Madeira
Islands and the Azores. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring mainly to the NE of the center. Fresh to strong ESE
winds are to the northwest of the Canary Islands. Please read
the Meteo-France high seas forecast at
http://www.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

The cold front will drift SE and stall through late week. Fresh
to locally strong N to NE winds and high seas will prevail
mainly S of 26N W of the front through tonight. Looking ahead,
another cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida
Sat.

$$
AKR/CM
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