[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270554
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Category Four Hurricane LAURA, at 27/0600 UTC, is
near 29.0N 93.2W. The position of LAURA is about 65 nm/120 km to
the SE of Lake Charles in Louisiana, and about 65 nm/120 km to
the SE of Port Arthur in Texas. LAURA is moving NNW, or 340
degrees, 13 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 939
mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 130 knots with gusts
to 160 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is
within 120 nm of the center in the W semicircle. Scattered
moderate to strong is within 120 nm of the center in the E
semicircle. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml, for more details.

..TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W/40W from 17N
southward, moving W 15 knots. Precipitation: any nearby
precipitation is part of the monsoon trough precipitation.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 61W/62W from 18N
southward, moving W 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate
is within 240 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within
330 nm to the west of the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W/84W, from 19N
southward, moving W 15 knots. The tropical wave is passing
through the eastern coastal plains/coastal waters of Honduras
and Nicaragua, and through Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific
Ocean. The monsoon trough is along 11N73W in NE Colombia,
northwestward beyond central Nicaragua, through southern
Honduras, El Salvador, southern Guatemala, along the coast of
Mexico near the Gulf of Tehuantepec and the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec, and to 17N99W. Precipitation: widely scattered to
scattered moderate and isolated strong is inland in Central
America, from Costa Rica to Honduras. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 73W westward in the Caribbean Sea.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the central part of the
coastal sections of Mauritania, to 18N20W, 13N30W 10N40W, and
08N50W. The ITCZ is along 08N/10N between 50W and 61W.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 180 nm to
the north of the monsoon trough between 36W and 43W, and within
60 nm on either side of the monsoon trough between 42W and 47W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 400 nm to 700 nm
to the south of the monsoon trough from the 39W/40W tropical
wave eastward.
Isolated moderate is within 60 nm on either side of the ITCZ
between 50W and 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The monsoon trough is along 11N73W in NE Colombia, northwestward
beyond central Nicaragua, through southern Honduras, El
Salvador, southern Guatemala, along the coast of Mexico near the
Gulf of Tehuantepec and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, and to
17N99W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate
and isolated strong is in inland areas between Guatemala, and
Mexico along 100W, and in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico
from 23N southward from 90W westward.

Major Hurricane Laura near 29.0N 93.2W 939 mb at 11 PM EDT
moving NNW at 13 kt. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 130
knots with gusts to 160 knots. Laura will move inland to 31.0N
93.7W by Thursday morning; then move inland more, and dissipate
through Saturday. Long-period swell from Laura will impact much
of the basin through Thursday. Atlantic Ocean high pressure will
build westward in the eastern Gulf of Mexico in the wake of
Laura.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The upper level cyclonic circulation center/trough, about 100 nm
to the WSW of Jamaica about 24 hours ago, has moved inland, to
the Yucatan Peninsula/Belize/Guatemala. Broad upper level
anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea from
80W eastward. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W/84W,
from 19N southward, moving W 15 knots. The tropical wave is
passing through the eastern coastal plains/coastal waters of
Honduras and Nicaragua, and through Costa Rica, into the eastern
Pacific Ocean. The monsoon trough is along 11N73W in NE
Colombia, northwestward beyond central Nicaragua, through
southern Honduras, El Salvador, southern Guatemala, along the
coast of Mexico near the Gulf of Tehuantepec and the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec, and to 17N99W. Precipitation: widely scattered to
scattered moderate and isolated strong is inland in Central
America, from Costa Rica to Honduras. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 73W westward in the Caribbean Sea.

Fresh trade winds will persist in the south central Caribbean
Sea for the next several days, as an Atlantic Ocean ridge shifts
southward. The 61W/62W tropical wave that is approaching the
Windward Islands will move across the Caribbean Sea from
Thursday through Saturday night. The tropical wave will be
accompanied by a modest increase in wind speeds and sea heights.
Another tropical wave will move across the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea during this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the
Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward, from 80W eastward. A 1019 mb
high pressure center is near 26N60W.

A ridge across the waters to the north of the area will shift
southward, gradually, into the upcoming weekend. A cold front
will move off the southeastern U.S.A. coast on Sunday, then
stall near or just to the north of 31N, from Sunday night
through Monday. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds may precede
the front this weekend in the waters that are to the N of 29N. A
tropical wave may increase the wind speeds and the sea heights
in the waters that are to the E of 65W, from Sunday through
early next week.

$$
mt
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