[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271034
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
634 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Laura is centered near 30.5N 93.4W at 27/0900 UTC or
30 nm NNW of Lake Charles Louisiana moving N at 13 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 948 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Winds to tropical storm force are
possible for the remainder of the overnight hours off the coast of
southwest Louisiana, with seas up to 22 ft. Winds and seas will
diminish rapidly over coastal waters as the storm heads inland and
weakens. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more
details.

..TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W from 18N southward,
moving west at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is evident from 07N to 11N between 38W and 47W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W from 18N southward,
moving west at 10 to 15 knots. No significant convection is noted
near the wave axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W, from 19N southward
through eastern Honduras and Nicaragua, as well as eastern Costa
Rica, moving west at 10 to 15 knots.The monsoon trough intersects
the tropical wave over central Nicaragua. Scattered showers are
noted along the Pacific coast of Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the northern coastal sections
of Mauritania, to 12N37W. The monsoon trough also extends from
northeast Colombia to central Nicaragua. Scattered moderate
convection is evident from 15N to 18N between 17W and 20W.
Scattered moderate convection is evident from 08N to 11N between
25W and 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features for information on Hurricane
Laura.

Seas in excess of 8 ft are still evident over much of the
northwest Gulf in a mix of swell, although overall wave heights
will be subsiding as Laura continues to move inland and weaken.
Seas will have subsided to 5 to 7 ft off Louisiana by early
evening, and will be 3 to 5 ft elsewhere.

A ridge will build westward from the western Atlantic, across
Florida into the eastern Gulf. For the next couple of days,
moderate to fresh SE winds are possible over the south central
Gulf due in part to an interaction between the ridge and a weak
trough moving from the northwest Caribbean through the west
central Gulf, enhancing local troughing in the process. Beyond
that period, the ridge alone will be the main influence,
supporting generally light to gentle breezes and modest seas
over the eastern Gulf, and moderate to occasionally fresh
southerly winds and 3 to 5 ft over the western Gulf into early
next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds are likely over the Gulf of Honduras this
morning as high pressure northeast of the area builds in the wake
of the tropical wave moving into Central America. Seas are
reaching as high as six feet this morning in the western Gulf of
Honduras. Moderate to fresh trades are noted over the south
central Caribbean, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Elsewhere gentle to
moderate trades and 2 to 4 ft seas area noted. An upper low west
of Jamaica is supporting a few showers near Grand Cayman. Isolated
trade winds showers are noted in regional radar mainly in form of
weak streamers downwind of the Windward Islands, near a tropical
wave moving through the eastern Caribbean.

For the forecast, persistent high pressure north of the area will
support the fresh trade winds over the south- central Caribbean
for the next several days as an Atlantic high pressure ridge
shifts southward. A tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands
will move across the Caribbean Thu through late Sat, accompanied
by a modest increase in winds and seas. Another tropical wave will
enter the Caribbean waters by Sat, and move across the Caribbean
through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the
Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward, from 80W eastward. A 1018 mb
high pressure center is near 25N60W.

A ridge across the waters to the north of the area will shift
southward, gradually, into the upcoming weekend. A cold front
will move off the southeastern U.S. coast on Sunday, then stall
near or just to the north of 31N, from Sunday night through
Monday. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds may precede the front
this weekend in the waters that are to the N of 29N. A tropical
wave may increase the wind speeds and the sea heights in the
waters that are to the E of 65W, from Sunday through early next
week.

$$
Christensen
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