[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262227
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
627 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Laura is centered near 28.1N 92.8W at 26/2200 UTC
or 122 nm S of Lake Charles, Louisiana or 122 nm SSE of Port
Arthur, Texas moving NW at 13 kt. Minimum central pressure is 947
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt,
making Laura a Category 4 hurricane. Some additional
strengthening is possible this evening before Laura reaches the
NW Gulf coast overnight. Numerous strong convection is noted
within 120 nm of the center with scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection noted elsewhere within 240 nm of the center
except in the W quadrant. Please read the latest NHC Position
Update at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCUAT3.shtml, the
latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, and the latest
Forecast/Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details.

..TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 37W from
04N to 22N, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 09N to 14N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 58W/59W from
near the coast of Guyana to near 22N. No significant convection
is association with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the central part of the
coastal sections of Mauritania near 19N16W southwestward to
14N24W to 13N35W to 07N47W. Isolated to scattered moderate to
strong convection is noted within 450 nm SE-S of the monsoon
trough E of 35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section above for details on Major
Hurricane Laura.

Long-period swell from Laura will impact much of the basin
through Thu.

Away from Hurricane Laura, which covers most of the basin, dry
conditions exist, with mainly moderate to fresh SE winds over the
eastern and S-central Gulf due to the pressure gradient between
Laura and high pressure centered over the western Atlantic.

Atlantic high pressure will build westward over the eastern Gulf
in the wake of Laura through the end of the week. A new high
center will develop over the E-central Gulf this weekend into
early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level low pressure stretching southward from the Cayman
Islands is creating lift and instability across much of the
western Caribbean this evening, mainly N of 11N and W of 75 where
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted.

Fresh trade winds will persist over the S-central Caribbean for
the next several days as an Atlantic high pressure ridge shifts
southward. A tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands will
move across the Caribbean Thu through Sat night, accompanied by a
modest increase in winds and seas. Another tropical wave will pass
over the Tropical N Atlantic waters Fri and Fri night, then cross
the eastern and central Caribbean waters this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure around 1020 mb is centered near 26N58W within a
ridge axis reaching W-NW to near the Florida/Georgia border, and
E-NE to near 32N30W. Mainly dry conditions and moderate to fresh
trades prevail S of the ridge, with gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow N of the ridge. A cold front reaches from SE of
the North Carolina Outer Banks to near Georgetown, South Carolina
with scattered showers and thunderstorms across the South Carolina
Lowcountry.

The ridge will gradually shift southward into the upcoming
weekend as a reinforcing cold front moves off the southeastern
U.S. coast on Sun, then stall near or just north of 31N Sun night
through Mon. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds may precede the
front this weekend over the waters N of 29N. A tropical wave may
increase winds and seas over the waters E of 65W Sun through early
next week.

$$
Lewitsky
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net