[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Depression ELEVEN, at 12/0900 UTC, is
near 12.2N 42.9W. ELEVEN is moving westward, or 280 degrees, 13
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40
knots. A west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin tonight,
and continue through the rest of the week. Some strengthening is
forecast during the next 48 hours. The depression is expected to
become a tropical storm by tonight. Precipitation: widely
scattered to scattered moderate isolated strong is within 240 nm
of the center in the W quadrant; widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 08N to 15N between 40W and 49W.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W from 19N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots.
Precipitation: any nearby precipitation is related to the
monsoon trough.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 61W from 22N southward,
moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate isolated strong is from 18N to 23N between 58W and 64W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W from 20N southward,
moving westward 15 knots. The wave is moving through the western
part of an upper level trough, that extends from SE Cuba to the
Peninsula de la Guajira of northern Colombia. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong in clusters covers the area
from Haiti to Jamaica to the Caribbean Sea coast of Cuba.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal
near 14N16W, to 11N24W and 12N33W. The ITCZ is along 06N from
46W to 57W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered
moderate and isolated strong is within 400 nm to the south of
the monsoon trough from the 26W/27W tropical wave eastward.
Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 04N to 09N between 30W and
40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. An
upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the central Gulf.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is NE of a line that runs from
SE Louisiana to N Florida. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from
94W eastward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. A
broad ridge extends from the east central Gulf, toward the
central Gulf, toward the SW corner of the area.

High pressure across the northern Gulf of Mexico will support
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across the basin. Fresh
to locally strong winds are possible each night in the eastern
Bay of Campeche near the Yucatan Peninsula due to local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...


The monsoon trough extends eastward from the Pacific basin along
09N/10N from 74W in Colombia beyond Costa Rica. Precipitation:
isolated moderate covers the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea from
10 to 13N and 74W westward. Numerous moderate to strong is south
of 10N between 77W and 83W, within 60 nm to the west of the 80W
tropical wave.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail across the south
central Caribbean Sea through Friday night. The comparatively
strongest winds are expected near the coast of Colombia and in
the Gulf of Venezuela during the nighttime hours on each night.
Fresh winds will pulse for the next several nights through the
Windward Passage. Tropical Depression ELEVEN near 12.0N 41.5W
1008 mb at 11 PM EDT moving W at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds
30 kt gusts 40 kt. ELEVEN will move to 12.3N 43.4W Wed morning;
strengthen to a tropical storm near 12.8N 45.9W Wed evening;
13.5N 48.3W Thu morning; 14.5N 50.8W Thu evening; 15.7N 53.3W
Fri morning; and 17.0N 55.7W Fri evening. ELEVEN will change
little in intensity as it moves to 19.5N 60.5W late Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from Great Abaco Island in the Bahamas,
across Andros Island, to the coast of Cuba near 22N79W. An upper
level trough extends from Bermuda toward SE Cuba. Precipitation:
isolated moderate covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward
from 64W westward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 25N northward from 60W eastward.

A persistent ridge, extending from the Atlantic Ocean into
the Gulf of Mexico, will support gentle to moderate SE winds to
the east of Florida through the weekend. Tropical Depression
ELEVEN near 12.0N 41.5W 1008 mb at 11 PM EDT moving W at 12 kt.
Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. ELEVEN will move to
12.3N 43.4W Wed morning, strengthen to a tropical storm near
12.8N 45.9W Wed evening, 13.5N 48.3W Thu morning; 14.5N 50.8W
Thu evening; 15.7N 53.3W Fri morning; and 17.0N 55.7W Fri
evening. ELEVEN will change little in intensity as it moves to
19.5N 60.5W late Sat.

$$
mt/dbm
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