[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Depression ELEVEN, at 12/0300 UTC, is
near 12.0N 41.5W. ELEVEN is moving westward, or 280 degrees, 12
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40
knots. The westward motion of ELEVEN is expected to continue
through Wednesday.  A west-northwestward motion is forecast to
begin on Wednesday night, and continue through the rest of the
week. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.
The depression is expected to become a tropical storm by
Wednesday night. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered
moderate and isolated strong is within 240 nm of the center in
the NW quadrant; widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 07N to 10N between 42W and 51W.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W/27W from 19N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots.
Precipitation: any nearby precipitation is related to the
monsoon trough.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W/59W from 23N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 210 nm to the
east of the tropical wave from 20N to 26N, and within 270 nm to
the west of the tropical wave from 16N to 21N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W/79W from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. The wave is moving through
the western parts of the upper level trough, that extends from
SE Cuba to the Peninsula de la Guajira of northern Colombia.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong in clusters
covers the area from Haiti to Jamaica to the Caribbean Sea coast
of Cuba.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal
near 16N16W, to 12N23W and 12N33W. The ITCZ is along 06N/07N
from 46W to 56W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered
moderate and isolated strong is within 400 nm to the south of
the monsoon trough from the 26W/27W tropical wave eastward.
Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 04N to 10N between 30W and
40W, and within 120 nm to the south of the ITCZ between 43W and
50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. An
upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the central Gulf.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is to the NE
of the line that runs from SE Louisiana to SW Florida, to the S
of 24N from 90W westward. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from
94W eastward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. A
broad ridge extends from the east central Gulf, toward the
central Gulf, toward the SW corner of the area.

High pressure across the northern Gulf of Mexico will support
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across the basin. Fresh
to locally strong winds are possible each night in the eastern
Bay of Campeche near the Yucatan Peninsula due to local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W/79W from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. The wave is moving through
the western parts of the upper level trough, that extends from
SE Cuba to the Peninsula de la Guajira of northern Colombia.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong in clusters
covers the area from Haiti to Jamaica to the Caribbean Sea coast
of Cuba.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N from 74W in Colombia beyond
Costa Rica. Precipitation: isolated moderate covers the SW
corner of the Caribbean Sea from 13N southward from 74W
westward. Numerous strong is in Colombia from 04N to 08N between
73W and 77W; and in the eastern Pacific Ocean within 60 nm to
the south of Panama and within 60 nm to the west of the 78W/79W
tropical wave.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail across the south
central Caribbean Sea through Friday night. The comparatively
strongest winds are expected near the coast of Colombia and in
the Gulf of Venezuela during the nighttime hours on each night.
Fresh winds will pulse for the next several nights through the
Windward Passage. Tropical Depression ELEVEN near 12.0N 41.5W
1008 mb at 11 PM EDT moving W at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds
30 kt gusts 40 kt. ELEVEN will move to 12.3N 43.4W Wed morning;
strengthen to a tropical storm near 12.8N 45.9W Wed evening;
13.5N 48.3W Thu morning; 14.5N 50.8W Thu evening; 15.7N 53.3W
Fri morning; and 17.0N 55.7W Fri evening. ELEVEN will change
little in intensity as it moves to 19.5N 60.5W late Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from Great Abaco Island in the Bahamas,
across the NW part of Andros Island, to the coast of Cuba near
22N79W. An upper level trough extends from Bermuda toward the SE
half of Cuba. Precipitation: isolated moderate covers the
Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 64W westward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 25N northward from 60W eastward.

A persistent ridge, extending from the Atlantic Ocean into
the Gulf of Mexico, will support gentle to moderate SE winds to
the east of Florida through the weekend. Tropical Depression
ELEVEN near 12.0N 41.5W 1008 mb at 11 PM EDT moving W at 12 kt.
Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. ELEVEN will move to
12.3N 43.4W Wed morning, strengthen to a tropical storm near
12.8N 45.9W Wed evening, 13.5N 48.3W Thu morning; 14.5N 50.8W
Thu evening; 15.7N 53.3W Fri morning; and 17.0N 55.7W Fri
evening. ELEVEN will change little in intensity as it moves to
19.5N 60.5W late Sat.

$$
mt
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