[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121739
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
139 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Depression Eleven is centered near
12.4N 44.2W as of 12/1500 UTC. T.D Eleven is moving westward at
12 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 kt with gusts to 40
kt. A turn toward the west-northwest at a similar forward
speed is expected tonight, with this motion continuing
through the rest of the week. The depression is expected to
become a tropical storm later today. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 11N-16N between 37W-47W.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An east Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 30W from
02N-19N, moving west at 10-15 kt. The convection noted in the
proximity of the wave is related to the monsoon trough.

A tropical wave has entered the east Caribbean, with axis
extending along 62W from 02N-22N, moving west at 10-15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted across the northern
portion of the wave affecting Puerto Rico and adjacent waters
north of 17N.

A western Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 82W from 20N
southward, is moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection prevails over the southern portion of the wave
affecting portions of Central America.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 19N16W to
11N25W to 12N33W. The ITCZ extends west of T.D Eleven near
10N47W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection prevail along
and south of the monsoon trough mainly east of 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1017 mb
high centered near 27N86W. Scatterometer data depicts light to
gentle anticyclonic winds across most of the basin, except the
Bay of Campeche where gentle to moderate easterly winds are
noted.

High pressure across the northern Gulf of Mexico will support
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across the basin. Fresh
to locally strong winds are possible each night in the eastern
Bay of Campeche near the Yucatan Peninsula due to local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

The monsoon trough extends eastward from the Pacific basin along
09N/10N from 74W in Colombia beyond Costa Rica. With this,
scattered moderate convection prevails along 10N. Scatterometer
data depicts gentle to moderate trades across most of the basin
except south of 16N between 70W-80W where fresh to strong winds
are noted.

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue across the
south-central Caribbean through late Fri night, with strongest
winds expected near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela at night. Fresh winds will pulse through the Windward
Passage during the next several nights. Tropical Depression
Eleven is expected to intensify to a tropical storm today while
moving northwest approaching the northeast Caribbean by this
weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on T.D Eleven and the
tropical wave moving across the basin.

Scattered showers prevail over the west Atlantic mainly west of
70W. A persistent surface ridge extending from the Atlantic into
the Gulf of Mexico will support gentle to moderate east to
southeast winds mainly south of 27N through the weekend.
Tropical Depression Eleven will strengthen to a tropical storm
near 12.8N 46.1W this evening with maximum sustained winds of 35
kt with gusts to 45 kt. It will reach near 13.5N 48.4W Thu
morning, near 14.5N 50.8W Thu evening, and to near 15.7N 53.3W
Fri morning with maximum sustained winds of 50 kt with gusts to
60 kt. Tropical Storm Eleven is forecast to track northwestward
to near 17.0N 55.7W Fri evening and maintain intensity as it
reaches near 18.2N 58.1W Sat morning. It will then begin to
weaken as it moves to near 20.5N 63.0W early on Sun.

$$

ERA
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