[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031010
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
610 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0920 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Isaias is centered near 29.7N 79.9W at 0900 UTC,
or about 115 miles east southeast of Jacksonville, Florida, moving
N at 8 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb.
Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Maximum
seas in the area of the storm are near 26 ft. Scattered to
numerous moderate convection is noted from 28N-32N between 77W-
81W. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will pass just
to the east of the Florida east coast through this afternoon and
then accelerate and move inland tonight near the South Carolina-
North Carolina border, and then N-NE inland across coastal
portions of the mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday. Marine conditions
across the NE Florida waters are expected to improve quickly late
this evening through tonight.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details.

The northern portion of a tropical wave along 65W has sheared
away from the wave and is moving NW across the waters north of the
Leeward and Virgin Islands this morning. A 1014 mb surface low is
analyzed near 21N64W. Clusters of scattered showers and
thunderstorms are noted from 21N-27N between 60W-64W. This
activity has decreased during the past few hours and the system
does not appear to be very well organized at the surface at this
time. However, environmental conditions are expected to allow some
slow development of the system to occur during the next few days,
and a tropical depression could form by the middle of the week.
The system is forecast to move northwestward over the western
Atlantic on Monday and Tuesday before it stalls southwest of
Bermuda by the end of the week. With this, the low has a medium
chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 27W from
01N-18N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted south of 11.5N between 24W-30W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 47W from
02N-15N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
found related to this wave near the ITCZ associated with this
wave.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 65W from 06N-
21N, is moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted south of 12N between 63W-65W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 74W south of
19N to northeast Colombia. The wave is moving west at about 10
kt. No significant convection associated with this wave is seen.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near
17N16W to 10N29W to 10N45W. The ITCZ begins west of a tropical
wave from 08N48W to 07N58W. Aside from the convection described
in the Tropical Waves section above, scattered moderate convection
is noted along the monsoon trough between 24W and the
African coast.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1015 mb
high centered near 27N89W. With this, light to gentle
anticyclonic winds prevail north of 24N and west of 86W. Gentle to
moderate easterly winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are ranging
between 2-4 ft across the basin.

Moderate winds will continue across the NE Gulf waters this
morning as T.S. Isaias continues moving northward near the east
coast of Florida. A weak high pressure ridge will persist over the
northern Gulf this week, maintaining gentle flow across much of
the region with moderate winds expected in the SW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the sections above for details on the Special Features
low and the tropical waves moving across the basin.

Overnight convection across the Greater Antilles has shifted
westward and over the adjacent Caribbean waters of the islands
early this morning. A surface trough extends from 22N86W to
16N88W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades
across most of the basin, except west of 77W, where light to
gentle winds are noted.

A surface trough moving across the Atlantic waters N
of the Leeward Islands will increase winds and seas slightly over
the Tropical N Atlantic waters N of 15N and E of 65W today. Fresh
trade winds over the central Caribbean waters are expected to
strengthen by midweek following the passage of a tropical wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

Refer to the sections above for more details on  T.S. Isaias,
the Special Features low, and the tropical waves moving across
the basin.

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1022 mb
high centered near 29N48W. The pressure gradient across the area
is allowing for light to moderate winds throughout, except for
fresh to strong winds in the western part of the area on the
periphery of T.S. Isaias. Seas range from 5-8 ft, except for
much higher seas in the range of 8-16 ft within the area of 20-
33 kt winds in the western part of the area outside the tropical
storm force winds.

T.S. Isaias will continue northward and near the east
coast of NE Florida this morning then accelerate N-NE away from
the forecast waters. Large seas associated with Isaias will spread
northward across the waters W of 75W today, then gradually
subside late tonight through Tue night. A low pressure trough
associated with a tropical wave will move NW across the west-
central Atlantic waters today through Wed. Environmental
conditions are conducive for development during the next few days
as this system moves northwestward, and a tropical depression
could form by the middle of the week.

$$
Stripling
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