[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 030542
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
130 AM Mon Aug 03 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Isaias is centered near 28.5N 79.8W at 03/0300
UTC, or about 44 miles east of Cape Canaveral, Florida, moving
NNW  at 8 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb.
Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Maximum
seas in the area of the storm are expected to reach 26 ft.
Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted from 25N-32N
between 76W-82W. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias
will pass just to the east of the Florida east coast through
tonight.  Isaias will then move offshore of the coast of Georgia
and southern South Carolina on Monday, move inland over eastern
South Carolina or southern North Carolina Monday night and move
along the coast of the mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details.

A tropical wave with axis along 65W helped develop a surface low
currently centered near 20N61W. Scattered showers are noted
within the low from 19N-23N between 60W-63W. This activity has
decreased during the past few hours and the system does not
appear to be very well organized at the surface at this time.
However, environmental conditions are expected to allow some
slow development of the system to occur during the next few
days,  and a tropical depression could form by the middle of the
week. The system is forecast to move northwestward over the
western Atlantic on Monday and Tuesday before it stalls
southwest of Bermuda by the end of the week. With this, the low
has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the
next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather
Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 26W from
01N-18N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is  noted south of 11N between 18W-28W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 44W from
02N-15N, moving west at 10-15 kt. At this time, no significant
convection is related to this wave.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 65W from 06N-
21N,  is moving west at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is
related to this wave at this time.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 73W south of
19N to northeast Colombia. The wave is moving west at about 10
kt.  Scattered moderate convection is noted along the southern
portion of the wave affecting Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near
18N16W to 10N29W to 10N42W. The ITCZ begins west o a tropical
wave from 10N47W to 07N57W. Aside from the convection described
in the Tropical Waves section above, scattered showers are noted
along the monsoon trough between 30W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1015 mb
high centered near 28N91W. With this, light to gentle
anticyclonic winds prevail north of 24N and west of 86W. Gentle
to moderate easterly winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are ranging
between 2-4 ft across the basin.

Moderate winds will continue near the west coast of Florida
through early  Mon as T.S. Isaias continues moving northward
near the east coast of Florida. A weak high pressure ridge will
persist over the northern Gulf this week, maintaining gentle
flow across much of the region with moderate winds expected in
the SW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the sections above for details on the Special Features
low and the tropical waves moving across the basin.

The proximity of T.S. Isaias to the north is enhancing
convection  across the far northwest Caribbean affecting Cuba
and adjacent waters mainly west of 75W. A surface trough extends
from 21N86W to 16N85W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to
moderate trades across most of the basin, except west of 77W,
where light to gentle winds are noted.

A surface trough moving across the Atlantic waters N
of the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico will increase winds and
seas slightly over the Tropical N Atlantic waters N of 15N and E
of 64W tonight, then pass N of the area on Mon. Fresh trade
winds  over the central Caribbean waters are expected to
strengthen by midweek following the passage of a tropical wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

Refer to the sections above for more details on  T.S. Isaias,
the Special Features low, and the tropical waves moving across
the basin.

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1022 mb
high centered near 29N48W. The pressure gradient across the area
is allowing for light to moderate winds throughout, except for
fresh to strong winds in the western part of the area on the
periphery of T.S. Isaias. Seas range from 5-8 ft, except for
much higher seas in the range of 8-12 ft within the area of 20-
33 kt winds in the western part of the area outside the tropical
storm force winds.

T.S. Isaias will continue northward and near the east
coast of Florida overnight and Mon then accelerate N-NE away
from the forecast waters. Large seas associated with Isaias will
spread northward across the waters W of 75W through Mon, then
gradually subside late Mon night through Tue night. A low
pressure trough associated with a tropical wave will approach
the west-central Atlantic waters tonight. Environmental
conditions are conducive for development during the next few
days as this system moves northwestward, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle of the week.

$$

ERA
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