[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031729
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
129 PM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1640 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Isaias is centered near 30.7N 80.1W at 03/1500
UTC, or about 80 nm ESE of Brunswick, Georgia, moving N at 11
kt. The minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained
winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Maximum seas in the area of
the storm are near 25 ft. Numerous moderate scattered strong
convection is noted within 150 nm of the center in the eastern
semicircle and 120 nm NW quad. On the forecast track, the center
of Isaias will approach the coasts of NE South Carolina and
southern North Carolina this evening. Isaias is forecast to
strengthen to a hurricane prior to landfall on the coast of the
Carolinas. The center will then move along the coast of the mid-
Atlantic states on Tuesday as a tropical storm. Marine
conditions across the NE Florida waters are expected to
gradually improve tonight through Tuesday. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details.

A surface trough with a 1014 mb low near 24N64W is producing
disorganized showers and tstorms from 23N-26N between 63W-66W.
Environmental conditions could allow for some slow development of
the system during the next several days, and a tropical
depression could form later this week. This system is forecast
to move NW at about 10-15 kt over the southwest Atlantic today
and on Tuesday, and then stall several hundred nm SW of Bermuda
by the middle to latter part of the week. This system has a
medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48
hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook
at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been added to the analysis with axis along
16/17W from 19N southward, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 08N-14N between 15W-20W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 30W from 19N
southward, moving west at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 07N-12N between 28W-34W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 48W from
02N-15N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is near the wave axis from 05N-07N.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 65/66W from
04N-18N is moving west at 10-15 kt. Showers and tstorms are
occurring inland over Venezuela, but not over water.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 75W south of
19N to Colombia. The wave is moving west at about 10 kt.
Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen north of 15.5N
and between Haiti and Jamaica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near
18N16W to 09N33W to 10N46W. The ITCZ extends from 07N50W to
07N58W. Aside from the convection described in the Tropical
Waves section above, scattered moderate convection is
within 360 nm south of the monsoon trough between 20W-41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails, anchored by a 1016 mb high near
25N90W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail north of
23N and west of 86W. Moderate winds are in the NE Gulf. Seas
are ranging between 2-4 ft across the basin. Scattered
showers and tstorms are seen over the Bay of Campeche, south
of 20N between 92.5W-96W.

Moderate N to NW winds will continue across the NE Gulf today as
Tropical Storm Isaias moves north-northeastward near the Georgia
and South Carolina coasts. A weak high pressure ridge will
persist over the N Gulf this week, maintaining gentle flow
across much of the region with moderate winds expected in the SW
Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Mid- to upper-level anticyclonic flow is over the NW Caribbean.
A weak surface trough extends from the western tip of Cuba to
Belize. Isolated showers and tstorms are near the coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula. Over the far SW Caribbean, the east Pacific
monsoon trough is enhancing scattered moderate isolated strong
convection south of 10N between 76W-83W. A few showers are seen
just S of the Dominican Republic as a result of an inverted N-S
oriented upper-level trough located along 70W. A recent ASCAT
pass depicts fresh trades across much of the eastern Caribbean
between 64W-73W, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere.

The Bermuda High north of the area along with the eastward
extension of the NE Pacific monsoon trough will contribute
toward fresh to strong E trades over the central Caribbean
from Tue through Fri. Elsewhere winds and seas are forecast
to remain quiescent through the end of this week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
T.S. Isaias and the low near 24N64W.

A tail of moisture containing a line of scattered showers and
tstorms extends S from T.S. Isaias from 30N78W to 27N79W to
near Ft. Lauderdale Florida. A 03/1444 UTC ASCAT pass shows that
winds over 25 kt in association with the circulation of Isaias
are north of 26.5N and west of 74.5W. A N-S oriented upper-level
trough extends along 70W from the Caribbean to 31N, enhancing
isolated showers and tstorms from 23N-28N between 66W-73W. A
1021 mb high is centered W of Bermuda near 33N68W. A cold front
enters the discussion area near 32N52W and extends to 31N58W.
Scattered showers are along and just ahead of the front. A
surface ridge extends from a 1028 mb high east of the Azores
near 38N22W to a 1022 mb high near 27N48W.

Tropical Storm Isaias is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane
near 33.1N 79.2W this evening, then move inland and weaken to a
tropical storm near 37.2N 77.0W Tue morning. Large seas north of
27N west of 75W associated with Isaias will continue today, then
gradually subside late tonight through Tue night.

$$
Hagen
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