[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282310
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
710 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 04N18W. The ITCZ extends from 04N18W to 02S40W to the
coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted within 180 nm of the ITCZ between 21W and 31W.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 240 nm of the
ITCZ between 31W and 38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A high pressure ridge extends across Florida and over the eastern
Gulf, anchored by 1025 mb high pressure near 32N75W. Scattered
thunderstorms are noted on radar imagery over the Louisiana
coastal waters, associated with a warm front over SE Texas and
central Louisiana. The latest buoy observations across the Gulf
show generally moderate to locally fresh return flow over the NW
Gulf. Seas are generally 3-6 ft in the western Gulf and 3 ft or
less in the eastern Gulf.

High pressure extending south-southwest from the eastern U.S. to
the eastern and central Gulf will shift eastward through Wed in
response to an approaching cold front. This cold front will move
into the NW Gulf Wed afternoon, reach from New Orleans to near
26N93W and to northeastern Mexico Wed evening, and from the
Florida Big region to near 25N89W and to the SW Gulf Thu morning.
The front will weaken as it reaches from SW Florida to near
23.5N90W to western Bay of Campeche Fri morning, then reach from
NW Cuba to just offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula Sat morning. A
squall line with strong to possibly severe thunderstorms is likely
to precede this front across the NW Gulf and portions of the
north-central Gulf early on Wed. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will accompany the front the front afterwards. High pressure will
settle into the NE Gulf behind the front Fri night through Sun.

Smoke from agricultural fires over SE Mexico and Central America
will produce periods of reduced visibility over the Bay of Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail end of a dissipating stationary front extends across
western Cuba. Associated convection over Cuba is diminishing this
evening per recent radar returns. Isolated showers are noted SE of
Puerto Rico and near the Leeward Islands. Fresh to strong trades
are occurring in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of
Colombia, between the Colombian low and high pressure over the
western Atlantic. A plume of 8-10 ft seas is located downstream
of Barranquilla. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades prevail
across the rest of the Caribbean with seas less than 8 ft.

High pressure extending from the central Atlantic to the NW
Bahamas will maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the south-
central Caribbean tonight before winds gradually weaken Wed
through Fri. Little change is expected into the weekend. Smoke
from agricultural fires in Central America is reducing visibility
over the western Gulf of Honduras. Some improvement of these
conditions may occur by the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front over the W Atlantic reaches from 32N59W to 26N67W to
23N77W, then transitions to a dissipating stationary front and
extends over western Cuba to 23N84W. Behind the front, 1025 mb
high pressure centered near 32N75W supports a surface ridge that
reaches across Florida and into the eastern Gulf. Moderate to
fresh NE winds are occurring between this high and the cold front
over the offshore waters N and NE of the Bahamas. Earlier
altimeter data in this region depicted 5-8 ft seas in these post-
frontal winds, highest N of 30N. Elsewhere, a high pressure ridge
centered near 29N40W dominates the central and eastern Atlantic,
with moderate to fresh trades south of the ridge east of 60W.

The stationary portion of the front will dissipate by Wed. The
cold front will continue moving eastward and gradually become
aligned east to west along 25N through Wed night. Another cold
front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast and into the NW
forecast waters Thu evening preceded by fresh to strong southerly
winds beginning Wed evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will also precede this front. The front will reach from near
31N74W to the Florida Keys Florida Fri morning, and weaken as it
reaches from 31N68W to the central Bahamas to central Cuba Sat
morning. The front will become weakening stationary from near
27N65W to the SE Bahamas and to eastern Cuba Sun.

$$
B Reinhart
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