[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281703
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
103 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Libera near 06N10W
to 02N17W. The ITCZ continues from 02N17W to 01N31W to the
coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Isolated thunderstorms are within
100 nm of the monsoon trough E of 13W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is along the ITCZ from 04S-06N W of
19W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging dominates the Gulf of Mexico anchored by a 1024
mb high off the eastern seaboard near 32N80W. No significant
convection or showers are noted but some broken multi-layered
clouds are moving across the central Gulf. Gentle to moderate
ESE winds are in the western Gulf with gentle to moderate
easterly winds in the eastern Gulf. Seas range from 3 to 6 ft.

High pressure extending to the central Gulf will shift eastward
through Wed in response to an approaching cold front. This cold
front will move into the NW Gulf Wed afternoon, reach from New
Orleans to near 26N93W and to northeastern Mexico Wed evening,
and from the Florida Big region to near 25N89W and to the SW
Gulf Thu morning. The front will weaken as it reaches from SW
Florida to near 23.5N90W to western Bay of Campeche Fri morning,
then reach from NW Cuba to just offshore of the Yucatan
Peninsula Sat morning. A squall line with strong to possibly
severe thunderstorms is likely to precede this front across the
NW Gulf and portions of the north-central Gulf early on Wed.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front.
High pressure will settle into the NE Gulf behind the front Fri
night through Sat.

Smoke from agricultural fires over SE Mexico and Central America
will produce periods of reduced visibility over the Bay of
Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail end of a weak front extends into west-central Cuba.
Thunderstorms are occurring along this front in north-central
Cuba. A pre-frontal trough extends along the western coast of
Hispaniola. Scattered showers are noted across the eastern
Caribbean. Scattered showers are also seen in the western
Caribbean moving west of the Cayman Islands. Gentle to moderate
trades are observed in the eastern and western Caribbean with
fresh to strong trades over the south-central basin. Seas range
from 3 to 6 ft and up to 9 ft north of Colombia.

High pressure extending from the central Atlantic to the NW
Bahamas will maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the south-
central Caribbean today before winds gradually weaken Wed
through Fri. Little change is expected into the weekend. A weak
cold front across W Cuba and the Yucatan Channel will dissipate
today.

Smoke from agricultural fires in Central America will continue to
produce periods reduce visibilities over the Gulf of Honduras for
the next few days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front over the W Atlantic extends from 31N63W to 25N63W.
The front stalls from 25N63W to the central Bahamas to NW Cuba.
Showers are moving along and ahead of the cold and stationary
front, N of 25N and W of 60W. Isolated thunderstorms are noted
along the north-central coast of Cuba. A pre-frontal trough
extends across the Turks and Caicos, from 26N69W to 22N72W to NW
Hispaniola near 20N72W. A 1025 mb high is over the central
Atlantic near 29N43W. The latest scatterometer data depicts
moderate to fresh NW winds behind the cold front in the W
Atlantic. Seas are up to 6 ft in this area.

The stationary portion of the front in the W Alantic will
remain stationary across the Bahamas today and gradually
dissipate. The portion of the front east of the Bahamas will
continue moving eastward and gradually become aligned east to
west along 25N through Wed night. Another cold front will move
off the southeastern U.S. coast and into the NW forecast waters
Thu evening preceded by fresh to strong southerly winds
beginning Wed evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
also precede this front. The front will reach from near 31N74W
to the Florida Keys Florida Fri morning, and weaken as it
reaches from 31N68W to the central Bahamas to central Cuba Sat
morning.

$$
AReinhart
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